The Markets
The stock market rally continued.
April ended with the Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) and Nasdaq Composite Indexes at record-high levels, having delivered their best monthly returns since 2020, reported Connor Smith of Barron’s.1 In April, investors:
- Leaned into optimism, remaining hopeful for progress in the Middle East. Paul R. LaMonica of Barron’s reported, “Markets are looking beyond the Iran war to a year of healthy profits and stock gains. Investors in our latest Big Money poll share that sentiment. Despite the Middle East conflict and other hurdles facing the economy, more than 54 [percent] of Big Money participants said they had a bullish outlook for the next 12 months, up from 47 [percent] in our survey in October.”2
- Embraced “pick-and-shovel” companies. During the gold rush, some of the most profitable businesses provided the tools gold miners needed. Today, pick-and-shovel companies provide semiconductor chips and other datacenter necessities. So, while concerns persist about the enormous amounts being spent on artificial intelligence, investors have enthusiastically embraced the beneficiaries of that spending, reported Smith.1
- Focused on corporate earnings. Strong overall corporate earnings also drove stock prices higher. At the end of last week, 63 percent of S&P 500 companies had reported first quarter earnings. The blended net profit margin for the Index was 14.7 percent. If profits remain at this level, it will be the highest net profit margin reported since FactSet began tracking it in 2009, reported John Butters of FactSet.3
Last week, major U.S. stock markets finished the week higher.4 Yields on many maturities of U.S. Treasuries moved higher over the week, as well.5
Data as of 5/1/26 | 1-Week | YTD | 1-Year | 3-Year | 5-Year | 10-Year |
| Standard & Poor’s 500 Index | 0.9% | 5.6% | 29.0% | 20.2% | 11.5% | 13.3% |
| Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index | 0.5 | 8.2 | 30.2 | 14.6 | 5.4 | 6.5 |
| 10-year Treasury Note (yield only) | 4.4 | N/A | 4.2 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 1.9 |
| S&P GSCI Gold Index | -2.0 | 7.0 | 44.1 | 32.6 | 21.0 | 13.6 |
| Bloomberg Commodity Index | 3.0 | 27.8 | 39.1 | 10.6 | 9.0 | 5.2 |
Sources: Yahoo! Finance; MarketWatch; djindexes.com; U.S. Treasury.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.
THE BOND MARKET WAS LESS OPTIMISTIC THAN THE STOCK MARKET. While stock markets rallied to new highs last week, the bond market moved in the other direction. In the United States, yields on Treasuries rose while prices fell.5 Jared Blikre of Yahoo! Finance reported:
“The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield…is back near the danger zone that has sent stocks tumbling before. That zone is roughly 5 [percent]…But this is not just a U.S. story. Global bonds have been under pressure, with yields rising across major markets as investors reassess inflation, central bank policy, and government debt supply.”6
In the United States, inflation, central bank policy, and government spending were top of mind last week.
Inflation moved in the wrong direction, rising to a two-year high.In March, Americans spent significantly more on gasoline and energy, health care, cars and parts, and insurance.7,8 The personal consumption expenditures price (PCE) index, which is one of the Federal Reserve’s preferred measures of inflation, showed:
- Headline inflation rose to 3.5 percent annualized in March (from 2.8 percent annualized in February).9
- Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose to 3.2 percent annualized in March (from 3.0 percent annualized in February).7
The Fed left rates unchanged. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which is the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) rate-setting body, kept the range for the federal funds rate at 3.5 percent to 3.75 percent. The accompanying statement confirmed that:10
- Economic growth is steady,
- Employment gains have remained low, on average,
- Inflation remains above the Fed’s 2 percent target, and
- Conflict in the Middle East has created a high level of economic uncertainty.
There was dissent among committee members. “Four officials voted against the decision, including three who objected to language in their post-meeting statement that suggested the central bank would eventually resume cutting rates,” reported Catarina Saraiva of Bloomberg. The possibility of a rate hike surprised markets, and yields on shorter-term Treasuries increased.11
Government spending lifted economic growth. Usually, consumer spending is the primary driver of economic growth in the United States. Last quarter, consumer spending cooled and economic growth was driven by business investment and government spending.12
While improving economic growth is wonderful, higher government spending is less so. Last week, Fitch Ratings warned that the U.S. deficit and debt are far larger than those of other countries with an AA rating. Fitch reported, “The fiscal position [of the United States] will deteriorate in 2026 due to tax cuts in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), although tariff revenues will offset half the OBBBA’s fiscal impact.”13
Taken together, last week’s data painted a complex picture for investors. Rising stock markets, higher inflation, a divided Fed, and a cautious bond market serve as important reminders to stay diversified and maintain a long-term perspective in uncertain times.
WEEKLY FOCUS – THINK ABOUT IT
“He that can have patience can have what he will.”14― Benjamin Franklin, Poor Richard’s Almanack
* These views are those of Carson Coaching, not the presenting Representative, the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, or Registered Investment Advisor, and should not be construed as investment advice.
* This newsletter was prepared by Carson Coaching. Carson Coaching is not affiliated with the named firm or broker/dealer.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the 3:00 p.m. (London time) gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association and is expressed in U.S. Dollars per fine troy ounce. The source for gold data is Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GOLDPMGBD228NLBM.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.
* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.
* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* The risk of loss in trading commodities and futures can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The high degree of leverage is often obtainable in commodity trading and can work against you as well as for you. The use of leverage can lead to large losses as well as gains.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.
* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. * Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
Sources:
1 https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-today-043026/card/s-p-500-nasdaq-hits-records-meta-s-troubles-are-the-market-s-gains–vkAFbZckZvQvV6cXaOul? or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/05-04-2026-Barrons-S&P-500-Nasdaq-Hit-Records%20-%201.pdf
2 https://www.barrons.com/articles/barrons-big-money-poll-stock-market-outlook-5461949d or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/05-04-2026-Barrons-Dont-Fret-the-War%20-%202.pdf
4 https://www.barrons.com/market-data?mod=BOL_TOPNAV or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/05-04-2026-Barrons-DJIA-S&P-Nasdaq%20-%204.pdf
7 https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-march-2026 (Report plus Table 2.8.11, line 32 and 37, see pdf)
8 https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2025-04/pi0325.pdf
9 https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/05-04-2026-bea-National-Income-and-Product-Accounts%20-%209.pdf
10 https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260429a.htm
11 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-29/fed-holds-rates-three-officials-dissent-against-easing-bias?itm_source=record&itm_campaign=The_Fed&itm_content=Fed_Holds_Rates-1 or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/05-04-2026-Bloomberg-Divided-Fed-Holds-Rates%20-%2011.pdf
12https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/?reqid=19&step=2&isuri=1&categories=survey#eyJhcHBpZCI6MTksInN0ZXBzIjpbMSwyLDNdLCJkYXRhIjpbWyJjYXRlZ29yaWVzIiwiU3VydmV5Il0sWyJOSVBBX1RhYmxlX0xpc3QiLCIzMiJdXX0= or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/05-04-2026-bea-National-Data%20-%2012.pdf
The Markets
It’s all about how you slice the index pie.
Last week, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P 500) closed at a new record high even though 329 of its 500 stocks lost value, reported Connor Smith of Barron’s.1
How is that possible? The S&P 500 is a capitalization-weighted index.
Imagine the S&P 500 as a pie. Each stock in the index is one slice of that pie, and all of the slices are different sizes. The size of each company’s slice is determined by its market capitalization. (Market capitalization is a stock’s share price times the number of shares outstanding).2 For example, if:
- Company A has a stock price of $50 and 100 shares outstanding, then it has a capitalization of $5000.
- Company B has a stock price of $100 and 1000 shares outstanding, then it has a capitalization of $100,000.
If both companies were in the S&P 500, Company B would be a bigger slice in the index pie.
One of the companies with the largest slices of S&P 500 pie is a chipmaker with a share price of about $200 and more than 20 billion shares outstanding. Its capitalization was recently more than $5 trillion.3
A company of this size is called a mega-cap company because it’s so large. When mega-cap company stocks gain value, they can pull the entire S&P 500 up, even when smaller companies are flagging, reported Adam Hayes of Investopedia.2
In contrast, if the S&P 500 was equal-weighted, every company’s slice would be the same size. As a result, every stock would have equal influence, so the index’s performance would reflect the performance of all of the companies. If most stocks were falling, then an equal-weighted index would probably move lower.2
From a practical perspective, when a capitalization-weighted index is rising, and most of its stocks are falling, then a handful of sizeable companies are performing exceptionally well.2 Last week, a small group of companies in the S&P 500 did exceptionally well.1
It’s still early in earnings season, which is the time when companies let investors know how they performed in the previous quarter. With 28 percent of S&P 500 companies reporting actual results so far, the index is on track to report its highest net profit margin (+13.4 percent) in more than 15 years. The Information Technology sector is leading the way with profits for the companies that have reported so far up 29.1 percent in the first quarter of 2026 compared to up 25.4 percent in the first quarter of last year, according to John Butters of FactSet.4
“Semiconductor stocks are in the midst of a historic run, a winning streak that is every bit as impressive as Joe DiMaggio’s famous stretch of 56 straight games with a hit,” reported Paul R. La Monica of Barron’s.5
Last week, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite finished the week higher, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost value.6 In addition, yields on longer maturities of U.S. Treasuries moved higher over the week.7
Data as of 4/24/26 | 1-Week | YTD | 1-Year | 3-Year | 5-Year | 10-Year |
| Standard & Poor’s 500 Index | 0.6% | 4.7% | 30.6% | 20.1% | 11.3% | 13.1% |
| Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index | -1.6 | 7.7 | 31.1 | 14.2 | 5.1 | 6.4 |
| 10-year Treasury Note (yield only) | 4.3 | N/A | 4.3 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 1.9 |
| S&P GSCI Gold Index | -2.8 | 9.2 | 41.6 | 33.3 | 21.6 | 14.4 |
| Bloomberg Commodity Index | 3.5 | 24.1 | 32.3 | 8.7 | 8.7 | 5.1 |
Sources: Yahoo! Finance; MarketWatch; djindexes.com; U.S. Treasury.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.
RETIREMENT CONFIDENCE FALLS. Stock markets have been climbing higher, but many Americans are feeling less optimistic about retirement. In fact, retirement confidence in the United States dropped significantly in 2026 on worries about Social Security, Medicare and inflation, according to the 2026 Retirement Confidence Survey conducted by the Employee Benefits Research Institute and Greenwald Research.8
In 2026, American workers are less confident than they were in 2025 that they’ll have enough money to pay for basic expenses in retirement. Just 58 percent of workers and 71 percent of retirees are confident they will have enough money to keep up with inflation and cost of living in retirement.7 People who participated in the Retirement Confidence Survey were:
| Working Americans | Retired Americans | |||
| 20268 | 20259 | 20268 | 20259 | |
| At least somewhat confident I’ll have enough money to live comfortably in retirement. | 61% | 67% | 73% | 78% |
| Concerned the U.S. government will make significant changes to the American retirement system. | 78% | 79% | 69% | 71% |
| Confident Social Security will provide similar benefits in the future. | 50% | 51% | 60% | 65% |
| Confident Medicare will provide similar benefits in the future. | 52% | 53% | 62% | 70% |
Alicia Munnell and Gal Wettstein of the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College reported on a survey that found Americans across the wealth spectrum have become more concerned about the impacts of potential changes to Social Security and Medicare on their retirement plans. The concerns have led some to begin saving more for emergencies, delaying retirement, and/or investing more conservatively.10
Decisions like these should not be made lightly. For example, investing more conservatively may be a sound choice or it could a choice that makes it more difficult to reach a comfortable retirement. It depends on individual circumstances and goals. Investing conservatively can reduce short-term ups and downs, but it also can limit long-term growth potential and the benefits of compounding.11
If you have questions about retirement, please get in touch. We’re happy to review your plan or help you build one.
WEEKLY FOCUS – THINK ABOUT IT
“Plans are nothing; planning is everything.”12
― Dwight D. Eisenhower, Former U.S. President
* These views are those of Carson Coaching, not the presenting Representative, the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, or Registered Investment Advisor, and should not be construed as investment advice.
* This newsletter was prepared by Carson Coaching. Carson Coaching is not affiliated with the named firm or broker/dealer.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the 3:00 p.m. (London time) gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association and is expressed in U.S. Dollars per fine troy ounce. The source for gold data is Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GOLDPMGBD228NLBM.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.
* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.
* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* The risk of loss in trading commodities and futures can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The high degree of leverage is often obtainable in commodity trading and can work against you as well as for you. The use of leverage can lead to large losses as well as gains.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.
* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
Sources:
1 https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-today-042426/card/the-s-p-nasdaq-hit-fresh-highs-market-breadth-is-terrible–LSnyu8Ofaq3jG05pVN45 or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/04-27-26-Barrons-The-S&P-Nasdaq-Hit%20-%201.pdf
2 https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/capitalizationweightedindex.asp
3 https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/key-statistics/
5 https://www.barrons.com/articles/semiconductor-stocks-rally-take-profits-now-28e9edb6?mod=hp_LEDE_C_2_B_1 or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/04-27-26-Barrons-Semiconductor-Stocks-Winning-Streak%20-%204.pdf
6 https://www.barrons.com/market-data?mod=BOL_TOPNAV r go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/04-27-26-Barrons-DJIA-S&P-Nasdaq%20-5.pdf
8 https://www.ebri.org/docs/default-source/rcs/2026-rcs/2026-rcs-release-report.pdf?sfvrsn=1229022f_1 (Page 4 and charts)
9 https://www.ebri.org/docs/default-source/rcs/2025-rcs/2025-rcs-release-report.pdf?sfvrsn=f5e3042f_5 (Page 4 and charts)
10 https://crr.bc.edu/the-impact-of-financial-advisors-since-the-uptick-in-policy-risk/
12 https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/dwight_d_eisenhower_149111
The Markets
The market completes a 180.
One of the most exciting driving sequences in movies may be the scene from Baby Driver when “Baby” (a reluctant getaway driver) slings a red Subaru into a narrow 180-degree turn, slides backward between obstacles, and immediately pivots into another 180-degree turn, all while perfectly in sync with the beat of his music.1
Since mid-February, the U.S. stock market has offered a similarly exciting ride.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P 500) was closing in on a record high level (7,000) in late February. Then the U.S. military conflict with Iran began and markets drifted lower. The S&P 500 hit bottom in late March when talk of a ceasefire inspired a 180 in outlook and U.S. stocks headed in the other direction. The index recovered lost value incredibly quickly. On Tax Day, it closed above 7,000 for the first time, reported Martin Baccardax of Barron’s.2,3
There were three main drivers behind the remarkable recovery. These included:
- Enthusiasm about the prospect of peace. Investor optimism surged on the possibility of an end to the Middle East conflict. “The stock market has now delivered a year’s return in about two weeks. While that might not be quite as impressive as all summer in a day, it’s been enough to provide a genuine reset for investors. The ‘end’ of the Iran war spurred a market celebration this week, even if the conflict is nowhere near officially over,” reported Teresa Rivas of Barron’s.4
Over the 12 trading days of April through last Friday, the Nasdaq Composite Index had a double-digit gain, while the S&P 500 was up more than 8 percent, reported Rivas.4
- Excitement – again – about artificial intelligence (AI). Concerns about AI capacity being overbuilt and worries that data centers might not prove profitable, have faded amid rising demand, reported Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway of Bloomberg.5
“…AI can just do more as the models get better (not just cheaper), and obtain new capabilities, and this improvement should also be seen as a source of new demand. If, for example, [a new AI product] is as amazing at cybersecurity as all the hype says, then I’d expect we’ll see a big surge in AI consumption from people who work on securing computer networks.”5
Investors’ appetite for AI is reflected in the performance of the S&P 500. Forty percent of its recent gains are owed to five of the biggest tech companies in the index, all are members of the Magnificent Seven, reported Baccardax.2
- A strong start to earnings season. Just 10 percent of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported on their performance during the first quarter. Among that group, more than 80 percent have reported positive revenue and earnings surprises. A positive surprise occurs when a company does better than analysts expected. In the first quarter of 2026, many of the companies that have reported took in more money and were more profitable than analysts anticipated, according to John Butters at FactSet.6
Last week, major U.S. stock indices finished the week higher.7 In addition, yields on most maturities of U.S. Treasuries moved lower over the week.8
Data as of 4/17/26 | 1-Week | YTD | 1-Year | 3-Year | 5-Year | 10-Year |
| Standard & Poor’s 500 Index | 4.5% | 4.1% | 34.9% | 19.7% | 11.4% | 13.0% |
| Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index | 2.6 | 9.4 | 36.5 | 14.7 | 5.5 | 6.7 |
| 10-year Treasury Note (yield only) | 4.3 | N/A | 4.3 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| S&P GSCI Gold Index | 1.9 | 12.4 | 46.6 | 34.5 | 22.5 | 14.7 |
| Bloomberg Commodity Index | -0.5 | 19.9 | 27.8 | 6.8 | 8.7 | 5.0 |
Sources: Yahoo! Finance; MarketWatch; djindexes.com; U.S. Treasury.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.
THE INFRASTRUCTURE TEST. Recently, heavy storms in the Midwest and elsewhere have severely tested aging U.S. infrastructure. There have been significant failures in flood defenses, power grids, and transportation networks, reported Anna Skinner of Newsweek.9
Since 1998, the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) has evaluated infrastructure in the United States every two years. The authors of the 2025 Report Card for America’s Infrastructure explained why the analysis is important:
“America’s infrastructure is the foundation on which our national economy, global competitiveness, and quality of life depend. While often taken for granted when it is working properly, every American household or business immediately feels the impact of just one inefficiency or failure in our built environment.”10
Poorly maintained infrastructure is costly. The ASCE found that “potholes damaging our vehicles, traffic delays leading to lost productivity and increased costs for products, aging water lines leading to spiking water rates, etc. – costs each American household $2,700 per year.”11
How well is the United States maintaining its infrastructure?
Themost recent Report Card for America’s Infrastructure graded 18 categories of infrastructure, and the grades weren’t good. The lowest marks were for systems that affect millions of Americans: a D- for transit and a D for stormwater.10
Overall, U.S. infrastructure earned a ‘C’, meaning mediocre condition; requires attention. Here’s how America’s infrastructure fared:10
| Aviation D+ | Hazardous Waste C | Roads D+ |
| Bridges C | Inland waterways C- | Schools D+ |
| Broadband C+ | Levees D+ | Solid waste C+ |
| Dams D+ | Ports B | Stormwater D |
| Drinking water C- | Public Parks C- | Transit D- |
| Energy D+ | Rail B- | Wastewater D+ |
For investors, deteriorating infrastructure can weigh on local economies, raise business operating costs, and (when spending accelerates) create opportunities for growth in industries that benefit.
WEEKLY FOCUS – THINK ABOUT IT
“Always do what is right. It will gratify half of mankind and astound the other.”12― Mark Twain, Author
* These views are those of Carson Coaching, not the presenting Representative, the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, or Registered Investment Advisor, and should not be construed as investment advice.
* This newsletter was prepared by Carson Coaching. Carson Coaching is not affiliated with the named firm or broker/dealer.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the 3:00 p.m. (London time) gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association and is expressed in U.S. Dollars per fine troy ounce. The source for gold data is Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GOLDPMGBD228NLBM.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.
* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.
* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* The risk of loss in trading commodities and futures can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The high degree of leverage is often obtainable in commodity trading and can work against you as well as for you. The use of leverage can lead to large losses as well as gains.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.
* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. * Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
Sources:
2 https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-war-oil-record-f69d42a1?mod=hp_LEDE_C_1_B_1 or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/04-20-26-Barrons-The-S&P-Just-Surged%20-%202.pdf
3 https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/
4 https://www.barrons.com/articles/peace-earnings-ai-stocks-new-records-74056d11?mod=hp_LEDE_B_1_B_1 or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/04-20-26-Barrons-Peace-Earnings-and-AI%20-%204.pdf
5 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-04-13/you-don-t-hear-much-about-the-ai-overbuild-anymore or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/04-20-26-Bloomberg-You-Dont-Hear-Much-About%20-%205.pdf
7 https://www.barrons.com/market-data?mod=BOL_TOPNAV or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/04-20-26-Barrons-DJIA-S&P-Nasdaq%20-%207.pdf
11 https://infrastructurereportcard.org/2025-infrastructure-report-card-one-year-later/
12 https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/923-always-do-what-is-right-it-will-gratify-half-of
The Markets
Sunny with a chance of rain.
Last week, news of a two-week pause in the Middle East conflict was like a sunny day. Investors celebrated and the relief rally lifted U.S. stocks higher. “The cease-fire announced on Tuesday led to the best day for the stock market in almost exactly a year,” reported Avi Salzman of Barron’s.1
On Friday, though, some clouds appeared on the horizon. U.S. economic data and Middle East damage assessments gave investors pause, and the market’s advance slowed as they considered the potential impact of:
- Rising inflation. The Consumer Price Index showed that prices surged from February to March. Gasoline and fuel oil prices were up 18.9 percent and 44.2 percent, respectively.2
| March 2026 2 | February 20263 | January 20264 | December 20255 | |
| Headline inflation | 3.3% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.7% |
| Core inflation | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.6% |
The good news was that core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, remained relatively steady. “There was no doubt that the spike in gasoline prices was going to drive up price growth in March, but the latest data show the Iran war’s effects on inflation were largely contained to energy, at least for now,” reported Megan Leonhardt of Barron’s.6
- An all-time low for consumer sentiment. Consumer optimism bottomed out in early April, falling 11 percent from month to month and 9 percent from year to year.7 Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu wrote:
“Demographic groups across age, income, and political party all posted setbacks in sentiment, as did every component of the index, reflecting the widespread nature of this month’s fall. One-year expected business conditions plunged about 20 [percent] and is now 6 [percent] below last April. Assessments of personal finances declined about 11 [percent], with consumers expressing a substantial increase in concerns over high prices and weaker asset values.”7
There is a caveat. Most of the interviews for the survey’s initial monthly reading were conducted before the ceasefire announcement. If the ceasefire holds, sentiment could improve over the month.7
- Energy infrastructure damage assessments. With a two-week ceasefire underway, “…people are waking up to the fact that the war will cause lasting damage…Most obviously, Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz is now a fact, and something of which it is taking full advantage. Secondly, a lot of energy infrastructure in the region has been damaged since the war erupted, and some of it will take time to repair,” reported Robin Wigglesworth of the Financial Times.8
Despite Friday’s retreat, major U.S. stock indices finished the week higher.9 In addition, yields on most maturities of U.S. Treasuries moved lower over the week.10
Data as of 4/10/26 | 1-Week | YTD | 1-Year | 3-Year | 5-Year | 10-Year |
| Standard & Poor’s 500 Index | 3.6% | -0.4% | 29.4% | 18.4% | 10.6% | 12.8% |
| Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index | 5.0 | 6.6 | 38.7 | 14.6 | 5.4 | 6.7 |
| 10-year Treasury Note (yield only) | 4.3 | N/A | 4.4 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| S&P GSCI Gold Index | 2.3 | 10.3 | 50.7 | 33.7 | 22.5 | 14.3 |
| Bloomberg Commodity Index | -3.7 | 20.5 | 32.4 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 5.2 |
Sources: Yahoo! Finance; MarketWatch; djindexes.com; U.S. Treasury.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.
THERE’S A NEW TYPE OF RETIREMENT ACCOUNT AND IT’S FOR KIDS. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which passed into law last summer, created a new type of retirement account known as the “Trump account”. Here’s what you need to know:
Who is eligible?
These accounts can be opened for any child who is younger than 18-years-old and has a Social Security number. To qualify the child must be age 17 or younger for the entire calendar year in which the account is opened, reported the Schwab Center for Financial Research (SCFR).11
Who can contribute?
The U.S. Treasury will contribute $1,000 to the accounts of children born in the U.S. between January 1, 2025, and December 31, 2028, reported the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College (CRRBC).12
Additional contributions (up to $5,000 each year) can be made by:11,12
- Parents,
- Grandparents,
- Account beneficiaries,
- A parent or child’s employer (up to $2,500 that counts toward the annual limit),
- Charitable organizations (not subject to the $5,000 limit), and
- Federal, state, and local governments (not subject to the $5,000 limit).
Are contributions taxable?
It depends on who makes the contribution. Parents, grandparents, and other individuals do not get a tax break for contributions. However, contributions made by employers or other entities are made on a pre-tax basis, according to the CRRBC.12
When can the money be withdrawn?
These accounts are intended to help young Americans fund their retirements. As a result, investment choices are limited and contributions cannot be withdrawn before the beneficiary reaches age 18. At that point, the account is subject to the same contribution rules as traditional IRAs, which means the account holder will owe taxes on any distributions, reported SCFR.11
How much could an account be worth at retirement?
It’s difficult to know. The account value will depend on how much is contributed and how investments perform over time. The U.S. government’s website estimates account values at various ages, assuming an average annual return of for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index.13 The average return is about 10.6 [percent], which reflects the returns from 1957 through 2025, reported J.B. Maverick of Investopedia.14 Here’s what they estimate:
| Contribution amount of $1,000 plus: | Account value at age 18 | Account value at age 27 | Account value at age 55 |
| $0 each year | $6,000 | $15,000 | $243,000 |
| $250 each year | $19,000 | $51,000 | $878,000 |
| $5,000 each year | $271,000 | $742,000 | $13,000,000 |
Is it better to contribute to a Trump account, a Roth IRA, or a 529 plan? It all depends. While the free money available to newborns is attractive, other types of accounts may offer greater flexibility and better tax advantages, reported Abby Schultz of Barron’s.15
If you would like to learn more about ways to help young Americans save and invest for the future, please get in touch.
WEEKLY FOCUS – THINK ABOUT IT
“The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago. The second best is now.”16 – Oxford Treasury of Sayings and Quotations
* These views are those of Carson Coaching, not the presenting Representative, the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, or Registered Investment Advisor, and should not be construed as investment advice.
* This newsletter was prepared by Carson Coaching. Carson Coaching is not affiliated with the named firm or broker/dealer.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the 3:00 p.m. (London time) gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association and is expressed in U.S. Dollars per fine troy ounce. The source for gold data is Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GOLDPMGBD228NLBM.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.
* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.
* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* The risk of loss in trading commodities and futures can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The high degree of leverage is often obtainable in commodity trading and can work against you as well as for you. The use of leverage can lead to large losses as well as gains.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.
* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
Sources:
1 https://www.barrons.com/articles/war-inflation-stock-market-df2a811a?mod=hp_LEDE_B_1 or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/04-13-26-Barrons-War-Inflation-%201.pdf
2 https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
3 https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2026/consumer-prices-up-2-4-percent-over-year-ended-february-2026.htm
5 https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_01132026.htm#
6 https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/inflation-report-cpi-data-march-fed-rate-cuts/card/inflation-wasn-t-as-bad-as-feared-why-it-won-t-make-the-fed-s-life-easier–KY53ecxD2vNCA3qsUkA9 or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/04-13-26-Barrons-Inflation-Wasnt-as-Bad%20-%206.pdf
7 https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/04-13-26-UoM-Survey-of-Consumers%20-%207.pdf
8 https://www.ft.com/content/73deaed8-4458-426f-955c-00f5be73ce69 or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/04-13-25-Financial-Times-Surveying-The-Middle-Easts%20-%208.pdf
9 https://www.barrons.com/market-data?mod=BOL_TOPNAV or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/04-13-26-Barrons-DJIA-S&P-Nasdaq%20-%209.pdf
11 https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/ins-and-outs-new-trump-kids-accounts
12 https://crr.bc.edu/trump-accounts-a-primer-for-parents/
13 https://www.trumpaccounts.gov
14 https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/042415/what-average-annual-return-sp-500.asp
15 https://www.barrons.com/articles/trump-accounts-advantages-disadvantages-603f9f82? or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/04-13-26-Barrons-Trump-Accounts-May-Come%20-%2015.pdf
16 Ratcliffe, Susan, Oxford Treasury of Sayings and Quotations, October 13, 2011 or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/04-13-26-Oxford-Treasury-of-Sayings%20-%2016.pdf