The Markets
Employment was top of mind for financial markets last week.
Economists and investors hoped May employment information would provide insight to the state of the United States economy, as well as clues about when the Federal Reserve (Fed) may lower the federal funds rate again.
Employment data arrives in two reports that offer different perspectives on the employment situation. Last week, the trends were similar – new jobs creation slowed from April to May – although the number of new jobs reported was quite different. Here’s a brief overview:
+37,000 new jobs per the ADP National Employment Report. Mid-week, this supplemental report showed fewer new jobs were added in May (37,000 new jobs)1 than had been created in April (62,000 new jobs)2.
“That was a big miss vis-a-vis what economists were expecting, and so we saw a negative market reaction initially. But if you talk to economists, guess what, they say that ADP number is not a very good predictor of the [Bureau of Labor Statistics] number, and they really give it much less weight, if any weight at all,” reported Julie Hyman of Yahoo!Finance.3
+ 139,000 new jobs per the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). On Friday, the government’s Employment Situation Summary reported more jobs were created than economists had anticipated. However, jobs growth slowed from April (147,000 new jobs) to May (139,000 new jobs), and initial estimates for March and April were revised lower.4
“While the headline number came in higher than expected, previous months were revised lower — a pattern which has been repeating itself for a while now and which has prompted a lot of head-scratching,” reported Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal of Bloomberg.The pair cited a source who believes one reason for the revisions is that key data about U.S. business closures and business openings arrives after the initial report is issued.5
The unemployment rate, which is determined by a survey of households, remained steady at 4.2 percent in May. “…the household survey found a 625,000 decline in the labor force, which helps the jobless rate since those not in the workforce aren’t counted as unemployed,” reported Randall Forsyth of Barron’s.6
So, what did the report tell us about the economy and prospective Fed rate policy? “Not as bad as feared but not as good as it looks. That’s what the latest employment data show. But for financial markets, the numbers suggest that the Federal Reserve may be slower to lower interest rates,” reported Forsyth.6
By the end of the week, major U.S. stock indexes were all in positive territory year-to-date, reported Connor Smith of Barron’s.7 Yields onlonger maturities of U.S. Treasuries moved higher over the week.8
Data as of 6/6/25 | 1-Week | YTD | 1-Year | 3-Year | 5-Year | 10-Year |
| Standard & Poor’s 500 Index | 1.5% | 2.0% | 12.1% | 13.3% | 13.2% | 11.2% |
| Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index | 1.1 | 13.1 | 10.5 | 6.8 | 6.2 | 3.3 |
| 10-year Treasury Note (yield only) | 4.5 | N/A | 4.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 2.4 |
| Gold (per ounce) | 1.9 | 27.9 | 41.5 | 21.8 | 14.6 | 11.0 |
| Bloomberg Commodity Index | 3.3 | 4.6 | -0.1 | -8.8 | 9.8 | 0.3 |
S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance; MarketWatch; djindexes.com; U.S. Treasury; London Bullion Market Association.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.
ABOUT BORROWING AND LENDING. In the United States, many people engage in short-term borrowing. They use credit cards to acquire goods or services – springing for a dinner out, charging the cost of a new video game, or purchasing a replacement refrigerator. Then, they pay the money back. If the credit cardholder doesn’t reimburse the card provider in full each month, then they will owe interest on the money they’ve borrowed. Buying on credit is fast and convenient, and it can be quite profitable for the lender.9
In China, the payment system can work differently. It’s more of a “pay now and buy later” approach where buyers lend their money to companies, reported The Economist.10
“When you get a haircut or eat at a restaurant, the seller encourages you to pay in advance for multiple transactions. You might pay upfront for ten haircuts, or put 1,000 yuan ($140) on a pre-paid card, and the business will, in return, give you extra credit to spend… The bonus the firm adds to the customer’s deposit rises with the size of the initial outlay, and can be large. Customers putting down 10,000 yuan can receive an extra 2,000 yuan to spend in the store. If they use the money within a year, that amounts to an annual “interest” rate of 20 [percent], paid in kind.”10
See what you know about borrowing and lending by taking this brief quiz.
- If the Chinese system seems familiar, it may be because it’s similar (in some ways) to gift cards. In 2024, Americans spent more than $300 billion on gift cards, according to a source cited by Charles Passy of MarketWatch.11 However, many Americans don’t use the gift cards they receive. That can make gift cards very profitable for companies. In 2024, a popular coffee retailer reported it had a significant amount of money stored in unredeemed gift cards and did not expect most of the cards to ever be redeemed. How much money was it?12
- $379 million
- $985 million
- $1.77 billion
- $4.56 billion
- When people buy bonds, they agree to lend their money to a government or organization. In return, the government or organization agrees to repay the loan and pay a specific amount of interest. Imagine that you lend your child $2,000 to buy a car. In exchange, they promise to repay you $200 a month (until the debt is repaid) and to mow your lawn every week.13 In this example, the lawn mowing would:
- Probably never happen.
- Represent the repayment of principal.
- Represent the payment of interest on the loan.
- Be your reward for being a wonderful parent.
- A credit score offers insight to a person’s financial circumstances at a specific time, and helps financial institutions decide whether to lend to a person or not. The practice began in 1989 when the first credit-scoring algorithm was created. How many credit scores can a person have?14
- One
- Three
- Fourteen
- Hundreds
- When people buy homes, the mortgage rates received are based on a specific benchmark. When the benchmark rate is higher, so is the mortgage rate. What is the benchmark for the 30-year mortgage rate?15
- The 5-year average return of the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index
- The Federal Open Market Committee federal funds rate
- The 10-year U.S. Treasury note rate
- The Big Mac Index
Weekly Focus – Think About It
“The pleasure of rooting for Goliath is that you can expect to win. The pleasure of rooting for David is that, while you don’t know what to expect, you stand at least a chance of being inspired.”16
– Michael Lewis, Author
Answers: 1) c; 2) c; 3) d; 4) c
Sources:
3 https://finance.yahoo.com/video/private-vs-govt-jobs-where-214534342.html
4 https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm (report and Table B)
5 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-06-06/america-s-data-disaster-is-already-here? or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/06-09-25-Bloomberg-Americas-Data-Disaster%20-%205.pdf
7 https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-today-060625?mod=hp_LEDE_C_2 or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/06-09-25-Barrons-The-Bottom-Line-of-the-Jobs-Report%20-%207.pdf
8 https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025 or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/06-09-25-Barrons-Stocks-Rally-In-Wake%20-%208.pdf
9 https://www.investopedia.com/how-do-credit-cards-work-5025119#
10 https://www.economist.com/china/2025/05/29/chinas-crazy-reverse-credit-cards or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/06-09-25-Economist-Chinas-Crazy-Reverse-Credit-Cards%20-%2010.pdf
13 https://www.econlib.org/library/Topics/Details/bonds.html
14 https://www.creditkarma.com/credit/i/how-many-credit-scores-do-i-have
15 https://www.fanniemae.com/research-and-insights/publications/housing-insights/rate-30-year-mortgage
16 https://www.goodreads.com/author/quotes/776.Michael_Lewis
The Markets
Consumers were feeling cautiously optimistic.
When people talk about the United States economy, they’re usually referring to gross domestic product (GDP), which is the value of all goods and services produced in here.1 For the first quarter of this year, U.S. GDP was nearly $30 trillion.2 That’s a huge number. It would take 14 years for a military jet flying at the speed of sound and reeling out one-dollar bills to release $1 trillion.3
The American consumer is the powerhouse of the U.S. economy. Consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of GDP.4 Spending not only supports economic growth, it also provides insight to the health of the economy. That’s because the purchases consumers make reflect consumer sentiment, the job market, inflation, stock market performance, and a myriad of other factors.5
Last week, a lot of consumer-related data was released.
Early in the week, the Conference Board reported that its Consumer Confidence Index bounced back “from a near five-year low”, reported Nazmul Ahasan of Bloomberg.6 “Consumer confidence rebounded in May following five straight months of declines as a series of new tariff deals improved Americans’ views on the economy… Consumers were less pessimistic about business conditions and job availability in the next six months, and became more optimistic about their future income prospects…Americans were also feeling better about their investments, thanks to the stock market’s May recovery” reported Sabrina Escobar of Barron’s.7
The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index (UMCSI) also showed a change in sentiment, although the improvement was less pronounced than that of the Conference Board’s Index. The final UMCSI reading for May showed consumer optimism stabilized from April to May.8 “Consumer sentiment was unchanged from April, ending four consecutive months of plunging declines. Sentiment had ebbed at the preliminary reading for May but turned a corner in the latter half of the month following the temporary pause on some tariffs on China goods,” reported Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu.8
Late in the week, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that personal income rose 0.8 percent in April, while prices increased 0.1 percent. The boost in income did not lead to higher spending, though. Consumers spent modestly more in April. Spending was up 0.1 percent, a slower pace than the 0.7 percent rise in March. Americans chose to save in April, socking away more than $1 trillion – almost five percent of disposable income in April.9
Major U.S. stock indexes finished the week higher.10 The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index and Nasdaq Composite Index delivered the best monthly performance since November 2023, reported Connor Smith of Barron’s.11 Yields onlonger maturities of U.S. Treasuries finished the week lower.12
Data as of 5/30/25 | 1-Week | YTD | 1-Year | 3-Year | 5-Year | 10-Year |
| Standard & Poor’s 500 Index | 1.9% | 0.5% | 12.9% | 12.7% | 14.1% | 10.8% |
| Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index | 0.3 | 11.8 | 10.9 | 6.2 | 7.2 | 3.0 |
| 10-year Treasury Note (yield only) | 4.4 | N/A | 4.6 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 2.2 |
| Gold (per ounce) | -2.0 | 25.5 | 40.0 | 20.9 | 13.6 | 10.6 |
| Bloomberg Commodity Index | -2.6 | 1.25 | -3.9 | -8.7 | 9.5 | -0.1 |
S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance; MarketWatch; djindexes.com; U.S. Treasury; London Bullion Market Association.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.
TOO VERBOSE? For centuries, maps were essential navigation tools. In recent years, travelers have come to rely on global positioning systems (GPS) that require them to follow directions rather than read a map. While GPS may seem simpler, it has occasionally led both real and fictional people astray. In a memorable episode of The Office, Michael Scott argues, “Maybe it’s a shortcut, Dwight. It said go to the right…The machine knows!” before driving into a lake.13
Now, a new app wants people to navigate using words instead of latitude and longitude. The inspiration for the new approach was a numerical miscommunication.
“[The app’s co-founder] was running a business providing the music for events such as weddings in venues such as pretty, rural villas. But the problem with pretty, rural villas is that they tend to be quite hard to find. Street numbers work only if there are streets. Postcodes cover vast areas of the countryside. And in much of the world there is no formal address system at all. [The co-founder] took to giving directions in latitude and longitude. Then at an event in Italy, a lorry drove to n 42.804509, e 12.683829 rather than n 41.804509, e 12.683829. The difference in numbers was tiny: a single digit. The difference to [the co-founder] was vast: his sound system was two hours north, rather than somewhere east of Rome,” reported The Economist.14
To improve users’ ability to find locations, the new app divided the world into trillions of three-meter squares and assigned each one a unique combination of three words.15 Users click on a square to find the three-word address. For example,
- The Hollywood sign in Los Angeles is located at “incomes.amount.formed”, 16
- Yellowstone National Park can be found at “flashed.faded.eggshells”, 17
- The Statue of Liberty is “planet.inches.most”, 18
- Graceland is “part.coin.soil”, 19 and
- The Gateway Arch is “roses.bonus.model”. 20
The company says three-word addresses make precise locations easier to communicate, so it’s easier to meet up with friends, find a destination, or get help in an emergency. However, choosing words to identify locations was not simple or straightforward. The company “employs linguists who manually go through each country’s dictionary, removing rude words lest they offend (“bottom” appears in the English version but not “bum”) and homophones lest they confuse (English loses “sun” and “son”). Complicated words are not removed entirely but do tend to be exiled to less populous places (“dodecahedron”…often ends up in the ocean).”14
The new approach to navigation gives a whole new meaning to Mark Twain’s observation: The difference between the almost right word and the right word is really a large matter. 21
Weekly Focus – Think About It
“I’ve had a lot of worries in my life, most of which never happened.”21
– Mark Twain, Humorist
* These views are those of Carson Coaching, not the presenting Representative, the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, or Registered Investment Advisor, and should not be construed as investment advice.
* This newsletter was prepared by Carson Coaching. Carson Coaching is not affiliated with the named firm or broker/dealer.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the 3:00 p.m. (London time) gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association and is expressed in U.S. Dollars per fine troy ounce. The source for gold data is Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GOLDPMGBD228NLBM.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.
* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.
* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* The risk of loss in trading commodities and futures can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The high degree of leverage is often obtainable in commodity trading and can work against you as well as for you. The use of leverage can lead to large losses as well as gains.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.
* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. * Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
Sources:
1 https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/what-is-gdp-why-its-important-to-economists-investors/
2 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDP
4 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DPCERE1Q156NBEA
5 https://sgp.fas.org/crs/misc/IF11657.pdf
6 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-27/us-consumer-confidence-jumps-most-in-four-years-on-trade-truce or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/06-02-25-Bloomberg-US-Consumer-Confidence-Jumps%20-%206.pdf
7 https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-today-052725/card/consumer-confidence-rebounds-in-may-Cbc4s1Q53oQfamXZKeaJ or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/06-02-25-Barrons-Consumer-Confidence-Rebounds%20-%207.pdf
8 https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu
9 https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2025-05/pi0425.pdf
10 https://www.barrons.com/market-data?mod=BOL_TOPNAV or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/06-02-25-Barrons-DJIA-S&P-Nasdaq%20-%2010.pdf
11 https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-today-053025?mod=hp_LEDE_C_1 or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/06-02-25-Barrons-S&P-500-Finishes-Session-Flat%20-%2011.pdf
13 https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1031459/characters/nm0951838
14 https://www.economist.com/britain/2025/05/29/what-on-earth-is-what3words or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/06-02-25-Economist-What-On-Earth%20-%2014.pdf
15 https://what3words.com/about
16 https://what3words.com/incomes.amount.formed
17 https://what3words.com/flashed.faded.eggshells
18 https://what3words.com/planet.inches.most
19 https://what3words.com/part.coins.soil
20 https://what3words.com/roses.bonus.model
21 https://www.goodreads.com/author/quotes/1244.Mark_Twain? [Pages 1 and 3]
The Markets
Nobody likes to balance the budget.
Some pundits said Moody’s rating downgrade of U.S. Treasuries was a nothing burger.1 After all, the rating change didn’t provide investors with any new information. Moody’s was the third rating service to lower U.S. government bond ratings. S&P Global downgraded U.S. Treasuries in 2011,2 and Fitch Ratings followed suit in 2023.3
However, Moody’s decision focused attention on fiscal policy – the way the United States government taxes and spends.4 In 46 of the past 50 years, the U.S. government has run a deficit, meaning it has spent more than it received from taxes and other sources of revenue, reported FiscalData.5 Every annual deficit adds to the public debt, which is about $36 trillion, according to the U.S. Debt Clock.6
The U.S. government finances annual deficits (and the overall debt) by issuing Treasury bills, notes, and bonds. The U.S. promises Treasury buyers (a group that includes individuals, institutions, and governments) that it will pay interest for a specific period and then repay the amount borrowed.7
When yields increase, so does the amount of interest the United States must pay
When government bond buyers have concerns about a government’s fiscal policy, demand for bonds may fall and yields may rise. That happened to U.S. Treasuries last week. The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond exceeded five percent. “The move above 5 [percent] is striking because that has been the general cap on the 30-year for about two decades,” reported Karishma Vanjani of Barron’s.8
While higher yields make U.S. Treasuries more attractive to investors, they also may create challenges for economic growth. “As the national debt grows and interest rates rise, the United States will spend more of its budget on the cost of servicing that debt – crowding out opportunities to invest in the economy,” reported The Peter G. Peterson Foundation.9
The United States is already paying a hefty amount of interest. In 2024, interest payments on the U.S. debt were about $880 billion, more than the U.S. budget for national defense, reported Michael Mackenzie, Liz Capo McCormick, and Ye Xie of Bloomberg.10
The U.S. isn’t the only country where yields are rising. “From the U.S. to Japan, long-term borrowing costs for the world’s biggest economies have surged as investors question the ability of governments to cover massive budget deficits,” reported Alice Gledhill and Mia Glass of Bloomberg.11
Over the week, major U.S. stock indexes moved lower amid worries about rising yields and fiscal policy.12 Yields onlonger maturities of U.S. Treasuries finished the week higher.13
Data as of 5/23/25 | 1-Week | YTD | 1-Year | 3-Year | 5-Year | 10-Year |
| Standard & Poor’s 500 Index | -2.6% | -1.3% | 10.2% | 13.5% | 14.2% | 10.7% |
| Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index | 0.8 | 11.4 | 8.9 | 7.1 | 8.1 | 2.7 |
| 10-year Treasury Note (yield only) | 4.5 | N/A | 4.5 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 2.1 |
| Gold (per ounce) | 5.0 | 28.0 | 41.8 | 21.7 | 14.2 | 10.9 |
| Bloomberg Commodity Index | 1.7 | 4.0 | -2.3 | -8.1 | 10.1 | 0.2 |
S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance; MarketWatch; djindexes.com; U.S. Treasury; London Bullion Market Association.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.
WHERE DO PEOPLE HAVE THE BEST QUALITY OF LIFE? Countries often measure success by comparing how much their economies produce. The United Nation’s Human Development Index (HDI) considers success from a different perspective by measuring quality of life. The index focuses on three fundamental aspects of human development: length of life, access to knowledge, and income.14
The 2025 HDI, which reflects data from 2023, showed that many wealthy nations (97 percent) have regained or improved on their pre-pandemic HDI scores, while just 60 percent of poorer nations have recovered, reported The Economist.15 The countries with the best quality of life were: 16
- Iceland,
- Norway and Switzerland (tied),
4. Denmark,
5. Germany and Sweden (tied).
The countries with the lowest quality of life were:
188. Niger and Mali (tied),
190. Chad,
191. Central African Republic,
192. Somalia, and
193. South Sudan.
The United States ranked 17th in the Index, tied with Liechtenstein and New Zealand. In 2023, U.S. life expectancy at birth was 79.3 years, and Americans could expect to complete about 15.9 years of school. U.S. gross national income – the total amount of money earned by people and businesses in the U.S. – per capita was $73,650.17 The ranking “puts the country in the Very High human development category,” stated the UN report.18
Weekly Focus – Think About It
“The true test of character is not how much we know how to do, but how we behave when we don’t know what to do.”19 – John Holt, Educator
* These views are those of Carson Coaching, not the presenting Representative, the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, or Registered Investment Advisor, and should not be construed as investment advice.
* This newsletter was prepared by Carson Coaching. Carson Coaching is not affiliated with the named firm or broker/dealer.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the 3:00 p.m. (London time) gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association and is expressed in U.S. Dollars per fine troy ounce. The source for gold data is Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GOLDPMGBD228NLBM.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.
* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.
* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* The risk of loss in trading commodities and futures can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The high degree of leverage is often obtainable in commodity trading and can work against you as well as for you. The use of leverage can lead to large losses as well as gains.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.
* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
Sources:
[1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-05-19/about-that-moody-s-downgrade? or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/05-27-25-Bloomberg-About-That-Moodys-Downgrade%20-%201.pdf
2 https://disclosure.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/sourceId/6802837
4 https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/money_12855.htm#:
5 https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/national-deficit/
7 https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/national-debt/#:~:text
8 https://www.barrons.com/articles/global-bond-treasury-selloff-yields-7c33f4c1?mod=article_inline or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/05-27-25-Barrons-Global-Bond-Rout%20-%208.pdf
9 https://www.pgpf.org/our-national-debt/
10 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-21/treasury-yields-climb-auguring-5-rate-for-20-year-bond-auction or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/05-27-25-Bloomberg-Bond-Market-Warns-Trump%20-%2010.pdf
11 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-22/long-term-bond-yields-soar-globally-on-fiscal-policy-fears or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/05-27-25-Bloomberg-Long-Term-Bond-Yields%20-%2011.pdf
12 https://www.barrons.com/market-data?mod=BOL_TOPNAV or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/05-27-25-Barrons-DJIA-S&P-Nasdaq%20-%2012.pdf
14 https://hdr.undp.org/data-center/human-development-index#/indicies/HDI
15 https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2025/05/06/which-countries-have-the-best-and-worst-living-standards or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/05-27-25-Economist-Which-Countries-Best-Worst-Living-Standards%20-%2015.pdf
16 https://hdr.undp.org/data-center/country-insights#/ranks
17 https://hdr.undp.org/data-center/documentation-and-downloads or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/05-27-25-Human-Development-Reports%20-%2017.pdf
18 https://hdr.undp.org/data-center/specific-country-data#/countries/USA
19 https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/49110-the-true-test-of-character-is-not-how-much-we
The Markets
Last week, the U.S. stock market showed why it’s a good idea to stay invested through bouts of volatility.
Major U.S. stock indices notched sizeable gains as investors celebrated a trade truce with China and better-than-expected inflation numbers,1 while brushing off a tepid consumer sentiment reading. Here’s what happened:
The administration negotiated a trade truce with China. The United States and China agreed to reduce tariffs for 90 days. U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports will fall to 30 percent, while China’s tariffs on U.S. imports will drop to 10 percent.2 The Wall Street Journal reported, “The agreement lowered tariff levels far more than Wall Street had expected, with one analyst…calling the deal a ‘best-case scenario’ for investors. Goldman Sachs cut its U.S. recession odds to 35 [percent] from 45 [percent] and boosted its growth forecast.”2
Inflation is closing in on the Federal Reserve’s target. Prices increased by 2.3 percent year over year in April. That put headline inflation just a smidge above the Fed’s two percent target. When the volatile categories of food and energy were excluded, prices were up 2.8 percent year over year.The price of eggs fell by 13 percent month to month leading a decline in the cost of food. Five of six major grocery store food group indexes moved lower in April.3
Consumers were concerned about inflation. While the Consumer Price Index’s April inflation numbers were encouraging,4 the inflation numbers in the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Survey were less so. “Year-ahead inflation expectations surged from 6.5 [percent] last month to 7.3 [percent] this month…Long-run inflation expectations lifted from 4.4 [percent] in April to 4.6 [percent] in May…,” reported Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu.5
The U.S. bond market was in a less cheerful mood than the U.S. stock market last week. On Friday, Moody’s lowered the rating for U.S. government bonds on concerns about the deficit (the difference between how much the government spends each year and how much it takes in through taxes) and rising interest costs.6 The rating service explained:
“Successive U.S. administrations and Congress have failed to agree on measures to reverse the trend of large annual fiscal deficits and growing interest costs. We do not believe that material multi-year reductions in mandatory spending and deficits will result from current fiscal proposals under consideration.”6
Over the week, U.S. stock markets saw solid gains with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index moving into positive territory for the year to date.1 U.S. Treasury yields ended the week near where they started.7
Data as of 5/16/25 | 1-Week | YTD | 1-Year | 3-Year | 5-Year | 10-Year |
| Standard & Poor’s 500 Index | 5.3% | 1.3% | 12.5% | 14.1% | 15.1% | 10.8% |
| Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index | 1.6 | 10.5 | 7.3 | 7.8 | 8.2 | 2.6 |
| 10-year Treasury Note (yield only) | 4.4 | N/A | 4.4 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 2.2 |
| Gold (per ounce) | -4.3 | 21.9 | 33.9 | 20.7 | 12.9 | 10.0 |
| Bloomberg Commodity Index | -1.8 | 2.2 | -3.0 | -8.3 | 9.9 | -.4 |
S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance; MarketWatch; djindexes.com; U.S. Treasury; London Bullion Market Association.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.
WHAT DO YOU KNOW ABOUT MEMORIAL DAY? Memorial Day offers a blend of celebration and remembrance. It’s the time when we honor the men and women who bravely sacrificed their lives in service to the United States of America. The holiday reminds us that freedom is not free and gives us an opportunity to remember those who fought and died defending our country. See what you know about Memorial Day by taking this brief quiz.
- How do we remember the fallen on Memorial Day?8
- Flying the flag at half mast
- Participating in The National Moment of Remembrance
- Placing flags and flowers in cemeteries
- All of the above
- What type of flower is traditionally worn on Memorial Day?9
- A sunflower
- A poppy
- A chrysanthemum
- A rose
- The Medal of Honor is the United States’ highest award for military valor in action. More than 3,500 soldiers, sailors, airmen, guardians, marines, and coast guards have received the honor. How many double Medal of Honor recipients have there been?10
- 7
- 12
- 19
- 22
- Visitors to military cemeteries on Memorial Day may see coins on headstones. The type of coin left behind has significance. When a person leaves a nickel on the headstone of a service member, it means they:11
- Appreciate the veteran’s service
- Trained together at boot camp
- Served together
- Were there when the veteran died
How do you celebrate Memorial Day?
Weekly Focus – Think About It
“Heroism doesn’t always happen in a burst of glory. Sometimes small triumphs and large hearts change the course of history. Sometimes a chicken can save a man’s life.”12
– Mary Roach, Author
Answers: 1) d; 2) b; 3) c; 4) b
* These views are those of Carson Coaching, not the presenting Representative, the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, or Registered Investment Advisor, and should not be construed as investment advice.
* This newsletter was prepared by Carson Coaching. Carson Coaching is not affiliated with the named firm or broker/dealer.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the 3:00 p.m. (London time) gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association and is expressed in U.S. Dollars per fine troy ounce. The source for gold data is Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GOLDPMGBD228NLBM.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.
* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.
* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* The risk of loss in trading commodities and futures can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The high degree of leverage is often obtainable in commodity trading and can work against you as well as for you. The use of leverage can lead to large losses as well as gains.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.
* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
Sources:
[1] https://www.barrons.com/market-data?mod=BOL_TOPNAV or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/05-19-25-Barrons-DJIA-S&P-Nasdaq%20-%201.pdf
2 https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-tariffs-trade-war-05-12-2025 or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/05-19-25-WSJ-US-China-Agree-to-Large-Tariff-Cuts%20-%202.pdf
3 https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf [report and Table 2]
5 https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu
6 https://ratings.moodys.com/ratings-news/443154
8 https://www.memorialdayfoundation.org/education/how-to-observe-memorial-day/
9 https://www.rd.com/article/memorial-day-poppies/
10 https://www.cmohs.org/recipients/lists/double-recipients
11 https://dma.mt.gov/MVAD/MVAD-Images/Coins-on-headstones-meaning.pdf
12 https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/7682393-heroism-doesn-t-always-happen-in-a-burst-of-glory-sometimes