Blog
The Markets
Last week, the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) played “Would You Rather?”
Would You Rather? is a board game that presents players with classic dilemmas and asks which options would be more palatable to them. For example, a game card might ask, Would you rather:1
- Be able to run on your hands or write with your feet?
- Eat chocolate-flavored broccoli or broccoli-flavored chocolate?
- Have the ability to see 10 minutes into the future or 150 years into the future?
Broadly speaking, the Fed has two mandates: 1) support maximum employment, and 2) support stable prices. Last week, members of the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) were asked to decide whether a cooling labor market or elevated inflation presented the bigger risk to the American people.2
If elevated inflation were the bigger risk, the federal funds rate might remain unchanged or move higher to support lower prices.
If cooling employment were the bigger risk, the federal funds rate might remain unchanged or move lower to support maximum employment.
FOMC members were asked to make the decision without access to economic data from October and November, which are expected to be released in mid-December, according to Megan Leonhardt of Barron’s.3
The FOMC decided to lower the federal funds rate by a quarter of a percentage point. However, there was significant disagreement within the Fed about whether that was the right course of action. Two committee members thought the federal funds rate should remain unchanged, and one thought the rate cut should have been larger, reported Catarina Saraiva of Bloomberg.4
In addition, the Fed’s quarterly rate projections showed that six policymakers who are not on the FOMC indicated “the benchmark federal funds rate should end 2025 in a range of 3.75 [percent] to 4 [percent] — where it stood before Wednesday’s cut — suggesting they opposed the move,” reported Saraiva.4
Since September 2025, the FOMC has lowered the federal funds rate by 0.75 percent. Since September 2024, it has lowered the rate by 1.75 percent.5
The Standard & Poor’s 500 and Nasdaq Composite Indexes finished the week lower after a broad selloff on Friday that Karishma Vanjani of Barron’s attributed to uncertainty about artificial intelligence.6 The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained over the week.7 Yields on long maturities of U.S. Treasuries remained steady or moved higher over the week.8
Data as of 12/12/25 | 1-Week | YTD | 1-Year | 3-Year | 5-Year | 10-Year |
| Standard & Poor’s 500 Index | -0.6% | 16.1% | 12.8% | 19.6% | 13.4% | 12.9% |
| Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index | 0.7 | 26.7 | 22.5 | 13.4 | 5.3 | 6.0 |
| 10-year Treasury Note (yield only) | 4.2 | N/A | 4.3 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 2.2 |
| S&P GSCI Gold Index | 2.0 | 63.9 | 59.8 | 34.2 | 18.8 | 15.1 |
| Bloomberg Commodity Index | -2.7 | 10.3 | 10.0 | -1.1 | 7.7 | 3.4 |
S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, S&P GSCI Gold Index, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends. The three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance; MarketWatch; djindexes.com; U.S. Treasury.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.
HEALTH CARE COSTS ARE ON EVERYONE’S MINDS. The cost of employer health benefits is rising faster than inflation and wages, reported Mercer’s Tracy Watts and Beth Umland.9 According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, year over year through September 2025:
- Employers’ health insurance costs increased 6.1 percent,10
- Wages and salaries rose 3.5 percent,10 and
- Inflation was up 2.8 percent.11
Mercer’s National Survey of Employer-Sponsored Health Plans found the average cost of employer-sponsored health insurance reached $17,496 per employee in 2025, and is expected to increase another 6.7 percent in 2026, which would bring the average cost above $18,500 per employee.9
“In nearly all employer-sponsored health plans, cost is shared with employees through both premium contributions deducted from their paychecks and plan design features that shift some financial responsibility to plan members when they access care. Since employees’ share of the cost of health coverage typically rises at about the same rate as overall cost, increases of this magnitude are heightening concerns about healthcare affordability,” wrote Watts and Umland.9
A Kaiser Family Foundation poll conducted last summer confirmed that many Americans struggle with the cost of health care. It found that:12
- 42 percent of insured Americans, ages 18 to 64, said it was somewhat or very difficult to pay for health care.
- 82 percent of uninsured Americans, ages 18 to 64, said it was somewhat or very difficult to pay for health care.
“Medical expenses are the leading cause of personal bankruptcy in the United States… Unexpected or chronic medical conditions can quickly overwhelm financial resources, even for those with health insurance. Given that over 90 [percent] of Americans have health insurance through commercial or government programs, the prevalence of medical bankruptcy is disconcerting,” reported Jay Eisenstock in Chief Healthcare Executive magazine.13
If you have questions about health insurance, get in touch. We may be able to provide some answers.
WEEKLY FOCUS – THINK ABOUT IT
“Our two goals are a bit in tension…everyone around the table at the FOMC agrees that inflation is too high and we want it to come down, and agrees that the labor market has softened and there is risk on that… the difference is how you weight those risks and what does your forecast look like – where do you think the bigger risk is. It’s very unusual to have persistent tension between the two parts of the mandate…You’ve got one tool. You can’t do two things at once.”2
–Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, December 10, 2025
* These views are those of Carson Coaching, not the presenting Representative, the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, or Registered Investment Advisor, and should not be construed as investment advice.
* This newsletter was prepared by Carson Coaching. Carson Coaching is not affiliated with the named firm or broker/dealer.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the 3:00 p.m. (London time) gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association and is expressed in U.S. Dollars per fine troy ounce. The source for gold data is Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GOLDPMGBD228NLBM.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.
* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.
* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* The risk of loss in trading commodities and futures can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The high degree of leverage is often obtainable in commodity trading and can work against you as well as for you. The use of leverage can lead to large losses as well as gains.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.
* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
Sources:
1 https://www.countryliving.com/life/entertainment/a45510378/would-you-rather-questions-for-adults-friends/? [Go to Funny and For Kids]
2 https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents.htm [8:45 and 19:06]
3 https://www.barrons.com/articles/white-house-inflation-cpi-ecca79df?refsec=federal-reserve&mod=topics_federal-reserve or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/12-15-25-Barrons-Why-the-White-House%20-%203.pdf
4 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-10/-silent-dissents-reveal-growing-fed-resistance-to-powell-s-cuts?embedded-checkout=true or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/12-15-25-Bloomberg-Silent-Dissents-Reveal%20-%204.pdf
5 https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/effr or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/12-15-25-Federal-Reserve-Bank-of-New-York%20-%205.pdf
6 https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-today-121225/card/friday-stock-market-selloff-wipes-out-s-p-weekly-gains-nasdaq-drops-1-7–E1Ef8TZjIX9NvMHZAZBO or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/12-15-25-Barrons-Selloff-Wipes-Out%20-%206.pdf
7 https://www.barrons.com/market-data?mod=BOL_TOPNAV or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/12-15-25-DJIA-S&P-Nasdaq%20-%207.pdf
10 https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/eci.pdf [Table A]
11 https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2025-12/pi0925.pdf
12 https://www.kff.org/health-costs/americans-challenges-with-health-care-costs/ [Figure 1]
The Markets
It’s beginning to look a lot like a rate cut…
A lot of information about the economy arrived last week. Some was delayed by the government shutdown. Some was right on time. Investors took a look and decided their holiday wish could come true. The Federal Reserve (Fed) might deliver a cut rate cut this week.1 Here’s a brief recap of the information that landed just in time for the Fed to consider it.
Inflation rose in line with expectations.2 From August to September, headline inflation increased from 2.7 percent to 2.8 percent year over year, while core inflation (which excludes volatile food and energy prices) fell from 2.9 percent to 2.8 percent, according to the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index.3 It’s one of the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation measures.
September spending mirrored rising prices. “U.S. consumers continue to be cautious with their wallets, spending more on basic goods and less on fun extras…gains in spending were largely concentrated on household necessities like gas and energy, housing and utilities, and healthcare…Spending on discretionary items like recreation services and goods actually decreased from the previous month…,” reported Nicole Goodkind of Barron’s.2
The holiday shopping season got off to a strong start. Fast forward from September to November, and Americans were less cautious with their wallets over the Thanksgiving holiday shopping week. A software company that tracks consumer spending online reported that Americans spent $79.6 billion that week – a 5 percent increase year over year.4 “More than half of consumers shopped exclusively or mostly online during the five-day period…,” reported a research company cited by Spencer Soper of Bloomberg.5
Consumer sentiment crept higher. Although the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index remained near all-time lows, sentiment improved from November to December.6
| University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers | Dec 2024 | Nov 2025 | Dec 2025 | Historic monthly average7 |
| Index of Consumer Sentiment | 74.0 | 51.0 | 53.3 | 84.8 |
| Index of Current Economic Conditions | 75.1 | 51.1 | 50.7 | – |
| Index of Consumer Expectations | 73.3 | 51.0 | 55.0 | – |
Major U.S. stock indexes closed higher last week with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index just below an all-time high, reported Connor Smith of Barron’s.8,9 Yields on U.S. Treasuries notes and bonds rose over the week.10
Data as of 12/5/25 | 1-Week | YTD | 1-Year | 3-Year | 5-Year | 10-Year |
| Standard & Poor’s 500 Index | 0.3% | 16.8% | 13.1% | 19.8% | 13.2% | 12.7% |
| Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index | 1.0 | 25.8 | 21.2 | 12.7 | 5.2 | 5.4 |
| 10-year Treasury Note (yield only) | 4.1 | N/A | 4.2 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 2.2 |
| S&P GSCI Gold Index | -0.3 | 60.7 | 60.2 | 33.6 | 17.9 | 14.7 |
| Bloomberg Commodity Index | 1.5 | 13.4 | 15.0 | 0.3 | 8.7 | 3.5 |
S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, S&P GSCI Gold Index, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends. The three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance; MarketWatch; djindexes.com; U.S. Treasury.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.
LANGUAGE IS CHANGING. There are a lot of languages in the world (7,159), butalmost half the world’s population (3.7 billion people) communicates using just 20 of them. Individual languages change over time. “They’re living and dynamic, used by communities whose lives are shaped by our rapidly changing world,” reported Ethnologue, a research center for language.11
Dictionaries catalogue the ways language changes, adding new words that reflect the world around us. Several English dictionaries recently announced their Words of the Year (WOTY) for 2025. They include:
Parasocial, which is the Cambridge Dictionary’s WOTY. Parasocial is defined as “involving or relating to a connection that someone feels between themselves and a famous person they do not know, a character in a book, film, TV series, etc., or an artificial intelligence.” Searches for the term increased significantly “following the release of personalized AI chatbots by multiple companies in the preceding year, public discussion about the psychological impact of parasocial relationships expanded from being mainly about influencers and celebrities to including the benefits and dangers of chatbots.”12
Rage bait, which is the Oxford Dictionary’s WOTY. It was selected after three days of voting during which 30,000 people offered their insights and opinions. Use of the word increased three-fold in 2025. Rage bait is defined as: Online content deliberately designed to elicit anger or outrage by being frustrating, provocative, or offensive, typically posted in order to increase traffic to or engagement with a particular web page or social media account.13
AI slop, which is the Macquarie Dictionary’s WOTY. It is defined as “low-quality content created by generative AI, often containing errors, and not requested by the user.” It was chosen by staff editors, who wrote, “While in recent years we’ve learnt to become search engineers to find meaningful information, we now need to become prompt engineers in order to wade through the AI slop.”14
67 (pronounced six-seven), which is Dictionary.com’s WOTY. The word “is a viral, ambiguous slang term that has waffled its way through Gen Alpha social media and school hallways. While the term is largely nonsensical, some argue it means ‘so-so,’ or ‘maybe this, maybe that,’ especially when paired with a hand gesture where both palms face up and move alternately up and down…Because of its murky and shifting usage, it’s an example of brainrot slang and is intended to be nonsensical and playfully absurd.”15
It will be interesting to see how language in Australia changes over the next few years. Effective December 10, 2025, the nation implemented a law that requires people to be 16 or older to have social media accounts.16 As you can tell from some of the words above, online communications can have a transformative effect on language.
“Social media enables new words, phrases, and expressions to go viral in a matter of hours, sometimes reaching global audiences…language, once shaped primarily by formal institutions, now responds to grassroots innovation and mass participation, especially among youth cultures and online communities.”17
WEEKLY FOCUS – THINK ABOUT IT
“Sharing meals has a strong impact on subjective wellbeing – on par with the influence of income and unemployment. Those who share more meals with others report significantly higher levels of life satisfaction and positive affect, and lower levels of negative affect. This is true across ages, genders, countries, cultures, and regions.”18
– The World Happiness Report 2025
* These views are those of Carson Coaching, not the presenting Representative, the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, or Registered Investment Advisor, and should not be construed as investment advice.
* This newsletter was prepared by Carson Coaching. Carson Coaching is not affiliated with the named firm or broker/dealer.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the 3:00 p.m. (London time) gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association and is expressed in U.S. Dollars per fine troy ounce. The source for gold data is Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GOLDPMGBD228NLBM.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.
* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.
* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* The risk of loss in trading commodities and futures can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The high degree of leverage is often obtainable in commodity trading and can work against you as well as for you. The use of leverage can lead to large losses as well as gains.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.
* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
Sources:
1 https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/12-8-25-CME-Group%20-%201.pdf
2 https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/pce-inflation-report-fed-rate-cuts?mod=hp_LEDE_C_2 or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/12-8-25-Barrons-Americans-Are-Spending-More%20-%202.pdf
3 https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2025-12/pi0925.pdf
4 https://www.salesforce.com/retail/peak-holiday/ [Sales Performance, United States] or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/12-8-25-Salesfoce-Shopping-Insights-HQ%20-%204.pdf
5 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-02/cyber-monday-online-spending-in-us-increases-7-1 or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/12-8-25-Bloomberg-Cyber-Monday-Spending%20-%205.pdf
6 https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu
7 https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/tables.html (See pdf) or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/12-8-25-Index-of-Consumer-Sentiment%20-%207.pdf
8 https://www.barrons.com/market-data?mod=BOL_TOPNAV or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/12-8-25-Barrons-DJIA-S&P-Nasdaq%20-%208.pdf
9 https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-today-120525/card/s-p-500-ends-week-within-striking-distance-of-record-ahead-of-next-week-s-fed-decision-9rOzAF0rGG8WmOxk2bCy or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/12-8-25-Barrons-S&P-Ends-Week-Within%20-%209.pdf
11 https://www.ethnologue.com/insights/how-many-languages/
12 https://dictionary.cambridge.org/us/editorial/word-of-the-year
13 https://corp.oup.com/word-of-the-year/
14 https://www.macquariedictionary.com.au/macquarie-dictionary-word-of-the-year-for-2025/
15 https://www.dictionary.com/e/slang/67/
16 https://raisingchildren.net.au/school-age/media-technology/media/social-media-ban-faqs?
17 https://ijsi.in/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/18.02.027.20251003.pdf, P. 233
18 https://files.worldhappiness.report/WHR25_Ch01.pdf?_gl=1*oy7o2m*_gcl_au*MTc4NTQ1ODI5OC4xNzY0NzEzNjk5, Page 6
The Markets
A change of direction…
Stock markets in the United States reversed course last week, with two major indices eking out gains for the month, reported Callum Keown of Barron’s.1 There were some other important changes last week that also may affect markets and investors. Here’s a recap:
New expectations for rate cuts. Stock markets gained as the probability that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower the federal funds rate in December increased from 30 percent on November 19 to above 85 percent last week.2
“The shift in rate sentiment started after last week’s delayed September jobs data, which painted a mixed picture. It then picked up steam on Friday after New York Fed President John Williams signaled he sees room for a reduction ‘in the near term’ amid labor market softness,” reported Edward Bolingbroke and Ye Xie of Bloomberg.3
Signs of weakness in the housing market. The move from a seller’s housing market to a buyer’s housing market may have begun, reported Prashant Gopal of Bloomberg. In September, price growth slowed for the eighth month in a row as demand for homes fell amid economic uncertainty and affordability issues.4,5
“Homesellers in the U.S. are yanking listings off the market, as the nation’s real estate sector stagnates. Nearly 85,000 sellers removed their properties in September, the highest number for that month in eight years, according to Redfin. The number of stale listings — those sitting on the market for 60 days or more — jumped to the highest level for any September since 2019.”5
An unanticipated credit risk for lenders. A Supreme Court decision legalized state-level sports gambling in 2018 and it’s affecting credit scores in states where online sports gambling is allowed, according to research from UCLA.6 Deteriorating consumer financial health could lead to problems for lenders. Nick Devor of Barron’s cited analysts at Bank of America who wrote:
“For lenders the increasing availability of online betting markets raises the potential for revolving debt spikes, accelerated defaults, and higher charge-off rates, particularly among subprime borrowers…a new risk for lenders, one that they have not had to deal with historically and underwriting models may need to be adapted.”7
Stock markets in the United States moved higher over the shortened holiday week, “ending a volatile November and [capping] off a strong Thanksgiving week,” reported Barron’s. “In a remarkable comeback, the Dow closed 0.3 [percent] higher for November. It was down 3.8 [percent] just eight days ago.”1 Yields on U.S. Treasuries were mixed.8
Data as of 11/28/25 | 1-Week | YTD | 1-Year | 3-Year | 5-Year | 10-Year |
| Standard & Poor’s 500 Index | 3.7% | 16.5% | 13.5% | 20.0% | 13.6% | 12.7% |
| Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index | 2.9 | 24.5 | 22.5 | 13.2 | 5.5 | 5.3 |
| 10-year Treasury Note (yield only) | 4.0 | N/A | 4.2 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 2.2 |
| Gold (per ounce) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Bloomberg Commodity Index | 2.7 | 11.8 | 12.5 | -1.2 | 8.2 | 3.1 |
S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance; MarketWatch; djindexes.com; U.S. Treasury; London Bullion Market Association.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.
THIS IS YOUR BRAIN ON TECHNOLOGY. Pocket computers are mighty helpful. Smartphones let us make phone calls, listen to music, debunk mistaken information, conduct banking transactions, and do a lot more! It’s a fact that people spend a lot of time on their phones.
“According to recent data, the average person spends 4 hours and 37 minutes on their phone every day. That’s the equivalent of over 1 day per week or 6 days per month. Across a year, that’s approximately 70 days spent looking at a phone…On average, people check their phones 58 times per day,” reported Fabio Duarte on Exploding Topics.9
While smartphones are convenient and make life easier, they may hurt our ability to concentrate and pay attention, according to a paper published in Scientific Reports. Researchers asked 20– to 34-year-olds to complete a test. Those who were tested without their phones present worked faster and had significantly better performance than participants who were tested with their phones in the room.10
“[The study] provides evidence that even the mere presence of one’s smartphone consumes cognitive resources, without willingly shifting attention or actively using the smartphone. In the test situation, there was no visible interaction with the smartphone, as the smartphone was not looked at or picked up.”10
No matter what type of device people are using, too much screen time can affect brain health. A recent study found that too much screen time can thin “the cerebral cortex, the brain’s outermost layer responsible for processing memory and cognitive functions, such as decision-making and problem-solving,” reported Mary Grace Descourouez in Stanford Lifestyle Medicine. In addition, “Light from the screen can delay melatonin release from the brain’s pineal gland, impacting the body’s natural circadian rhythm and causing difficulty sleeping.”11
With smartphones, as with so many things, moderation is a virtue.
WEEKLY FOCUS – THINK ABOUT IT
“What is the world’s biggest city? To an alien gazing down from space, ignoring political boundaries and just mapping contiguous areas of high population density, the answer would be clear: the Pearl River Delta, a chain of southern Chinese cities that have fused into one vast sprawl. Its population is projected to reach 73m people in 2026, just as a regional high-speed railway network, to bind it together, is due to be completed.”12
— The Economist, The World Ahead, Mapping 2026
* These views are those of Carson Coaching, not the presenting Representative, the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, or Registered Investment Advisor, and should not be construed as investment advice.
* This newsletter was prepared by Carson Coaching. Carson Coaching is not affiliated with the named firm or broker/dealer.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the 3:00 p.m. (London time) gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association and is expressed in U.S. Dollars per fine troy ounce. The source for gold data is Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GOLDPMGBD228NLBM.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.
* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.
* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* The risk of loss in trading commodities and futures can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The high degree of leverage is often obtainable in commodity trading and can work against you as well as for you. The use of leverage can lead to large losses as well as gains.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.
* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
Sources:
1 https://www.barrons.com/articles/sports-betting-risk-enders-bofa-analysts-ef87e724 or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/12-1-25-Barrons-Stocks-Jump-%201.pdf
2 https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/12-1-25-CME-Group-FedWatch%20-%202.pdf
3 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-25/traders-crowd-into-fed-futures-targeting-a-december-rate-cut or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/12-1-25-Bloomberg-Traders-Crowd-Into-Fed-Futures%20-%203.pdf
4 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-25/us-home-price-growth-slowed-in-september-as-buyers-pulled-back or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/12-1-25-Bloomberg-US-Home-Price%20-%204.pdf
5 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-25/us-homesellers-pull-stale-listings-off-market-as-interest-fades or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/12-1-25-US-Home-Sellers-Pull%20-%205.pdf
7 https://www.barrons.com/articles/sports-betting-risk-enders-bofa-analysts-ef87e724 or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/12-1-25-Barrons-Sports-Betting-a-Risk%20-%207.pdf
9 https://explodingtopics.com/blog/smartphone-usage-stats
10 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-023-36256-4
11 https://lifestylemedicine.stanford.edu/what-excessive-screen-time-does-to-the-adult-brain/
12 https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2025/11/12/eight-trends-to-watch-explained-with-maps or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/12-1-25-Economist-Eight-Trends-to-Watch%20-%2012.pdf
The Markets
Uncertainty abounds.
Investors were skittish last week. Share prices jolted higher and lower amid concerns about artificial intelligence (AI) data center spending, upcoming Federal Reserve rate decisions, and the strength of consumer spending, reported Phil Serafino and Natalia Kniazhevich of Bloomberg.1 These issues will affect the future performance of companies, and investors are trying to anticipate what may be ahead.
In the third quarter, companies were profitable and sales were strong
Overall, U.S. companies performed well in the third quarter of 2025. So far, 95 percent of companies in the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index have reported on performance over the period. Almost three-fourths performed better than analysts expected. Overall, company profits were up 13.4 percent for the quarter, reported John Butters of FactSet.2
Sales (a.k.a. revenue) have been strong, as well. In the third quarter, S&P 500 companies had the highest combined sales growth in three years (+8.4 percent). “Three sectors are reporting (or have reported) double-digit revenue growth for the quarter: Information Technology, Health Care, and Communication Services,” reported Butters.2
Share prices reflect recent performance and investors’ expectations
While strong company performance is reassuring, some analysts and asset managers believe stock prices, overall, are too high. For instance, Bank of America’s November survey of global money managers found that most respondents thought stocks were overvalued, reported Brett Arends of MarketWatch via Morningstar.3
Not everyone agrees. Last week, Dan Kemp of Morningstar reported, “Strong revenue growth and unusually high profit margins…alongside the US stock market’s growing concentration in companies benefiting from the rapid growth in AI have led Morningstar’s analysts to increase their estimates of the market’s fair value. As a result, the average US company under Morningstar’s coverage now appears undervalued…”4
Expect volatility to continue
While Morningstar analysts think valuations are attractive, they expect markets to remain volatile. The U.S. stock market’s “concentration in tech stocks – companies dependent on long term future growth – brings with it increased risk of lurching price movements driven by short-term changes in investor sentiment.”4
There were a lot of ups and downs last week. Major U.S. stock indices ended the week lower.5 In contrast, U.S. Treasuries rallied, with yields on most maturities falling.6
Data as of 11/21/25 | 1-Week | YTD | 1-Year | 3-Year | 5-Year | 10-Year |
| Standard & Poor’s 500 Index | -2.0% | 12.3% | 10.6% | 18.7% | 13.0% | 12.2% |
| Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index | -3.3 | 21.0 | 19.9 | 12.8 | 5.1 | 4.9 |
| 10-year Treasury Note (yield only) | 4.1 | N/A | 4.4 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 2.3 |
| Gold (per ounce) | 0.0 | 56.0 | 52.8 | 32.5 | 17.2 | 14.3 |
| Bloomberg Commodity Index | -1.5 | 8.9 | 8.7 | -2.3 | 7.7 | 2.8 |
S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance; MarketWatch; djindexes.com; U.S. Treasury; London Bullion Market Association.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.
‘TIS THE SEASON! The holiday shopping season gets underway this week, and expectations are high. The National Retail Federation (NRF) looks at a bunch of economic factors – consumer spending, disposable personal income, employment, wages, inflation, and monthly retail sales – to estimate how much people will spend over the winter holidays. This year, the forecast suggests sales will top $1 trillion.7
“American consumers may be cautious in sentiment yet remain fundamentally strong and continue to drive U.S. economic activity…We remain bullish about the holiday shopping season and expect that consumers will continue to seek savings in nonessential categories to be able to spend on gifts for loved ones,” explained NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay.7
The gift shift
The Currency reported on a recent survey, called the Going Rate, that explored how Americans think about gift giving and spending. When responses were tallied, it found that:8
| 86 percent | Believe gifts can be meaningful without being expensive |
| 75 percent | Expect gifts will be more expensive this year because of tariffs and inflation. |
| 60 percent | Think gift culture has gotten “out of hand”. |
| 58 percent | Have a gift budget. |
| 56 percent | Buy gifts throughout the year to spread out the cost. |
| 48 percent | Experience gift fatigue. |
| 33 percent | Are adopting no-gift policies. |
Fifty-five percent of millennials, 50 percent of Gen Z, and 28 percent of baby boomers would rather give the gift of time and shared experience. They believe their presence is the real gift. Respondents who plan to give gifts expect to spend about $64 per person, on average.8
WEEKLY FOCUS – THINK ABOUT IT
“Honey, do you honestly think I would check thousands of tiny little lights if I wasn’t sure the extension cord was plugged in?”9
– Clark Griswold, National Lampoon’s Christmas Vacation
* These views are those of Carson Coaching, not the presenting Representative, the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, or Registered Investment Advisor, and should not be construed as investment advice.
* This newsletter was prepared by Carson Coaching. Carson Coaching is not affiliated with the named firm or broker/dealer.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the 3:00 p.m. (London time) gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association and is expressed in U.S. Dollars per fine troy ounce. The source for gold data is Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GOLDPMGBD228NLBM.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.
* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.
* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* The risk of loss in trading commodities and futures can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The high degree of leverage is often obtainable in commodity trading and can work against you as well as for you. The use of leverage can lead to large losses as well as gains.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.
* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. * Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
Sources:
1 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-11-21/investors-angst-goes-far-beyond-ai-and-nvidia? or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/11-24-25-Bloomberg-Investors-Angst%20-%201.pdf
2https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_112125.pdf or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/11-24-25-Factset-Earnings-Insight%20-%202.pdf
5 https://www.barrons.com/market-data?mod=BOL_TOPNAV or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/11-24-25-Barrons-DJIA-S&P-Nasdaq%20-%205.pdf
8 https://www.empower.com/the-currency/money/going-rate-research
9 https://www.today.com/life/holidays/christmas-vacation-quotes-rcna48344