The Markets

There was some good news and some bad news last week.

Let’s start with the good news: Employment gains exceeded expectations last month.

Employers in the United States added 172,000 new jobs in May, similar to April’s 179,000 new jobs. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.3 percent, the average work-week length was about 34 hours, and wages rose.¹

“The strong payroll growth, steady unemployment rate, and broad-based job gains are unambiguously good news, but Friday’s data did show the labor market still has some weak spots…Those who are out of work are also still finding it difficult to get a job. The share of unemployed workers who have been out of work for 27 weeks or more rose to 27.5 [percent] in May, up from 25.3 [percent] in April and 20.4 [percent] a year ago,” reported Megan Leonhardt of Barron’s.²

Here’s the bad news: The Federal Reserve probably won’t lower the federal (fed) funds rate this year. It might raise the rate. (The fed funds rate is the interest rate at which banks lend money to each other. Other interest rates often move in the direction the fed funds rate moves, increasing or lowering borrowing costs.)

The Fed’s two main jobs are to keep employment high and inflation low. Employment is healthy. The long-term average unemployment rate in the U.S. is about 5.7 percent,³ and the current rate is at 4.3 percent.¹ Inflation, on the other hand, is rising faster than the Fed would like and, in recent months, has accelerated.⁴ As a result, the Fed is less concerned about supporting employment and more focused on reducing inflation.

One way for the Fed to fight inflation is to raise the federal funds rate. The move typically pushes other interest rates higher, increasing the cost of borrowing. Higher borrowing costs can slow consumer spending. In addition, higher borrowing costs can reduce company profits. When financial analysts anticipate lower corporate profits, they reassess stock valuations, and stock prices sometimes move lower.⁵

While strong employment numbers are good news for people looking for work, they signal to the Fed that the economy doesn’t need the support lower rates might provide. Instead, inflation become the Fed’s primary focus. Historically, higher rates are a tool the Fed has used to bring prices down.

The possibility of higher rates hit financial markets hard last week.

“Wall Street’s historic weekly run came to a halt, with stocks hit by a tech selloff and higher bond yields after a solid jobs report added to bets the Federal Reserve’s next interest-rate move will be a hike. That repricing of the Fed outlook coincided with a swoon in the artificial-intelligence shares that had led a surge from this year’s lows,” reported Rita Nazareth of Bloomberg.⁶

By the end of the day on Friday, major U.S. stock indexes were lower,⁷ and yields on all but the shortest maturities of U.S. Treasuries were higher.⁸

Data as of 6/5/26	1-Week	YTD	1-Year	3-Year	5-Year	10-Year
Standard & Poor’s 500 Index	-2.6%	7.9%	24.3%	20.0%	11.8%	13.4%
Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index	-1.7	10.9	25.5	15.9	5.2	6.8
10-year Treasury Note (yield only)	4.5	N/A	4.4	3.7	1.6	1.7
S&P GSCI Gold Index	-5.0	0.6	29.3	30.3	18.1	13.3
Bloomberg Commodity Index	-1.8	20.9	29.0	9.9	7.1	4.2

SEARCHING FOR A SOCIAL SECURITY SOLUTION. In 2025, the trustees of the Social Security trust fund reported that the fund, “will be able to pay 100 percent of total scheduled benefits until 2033…At that time, the fund’s reserves will become depleted and continuing program income will be sufficient to pay 77 percent of total scheduled benefits.”⁹

As a result, policymakers, researchers, and advocacy groups have been discussing ways to strengthen the program’s long-term finances. While there is broad agreement that Social Security’s finances should be addressed, there is much less agreement about the best way to address it. As a result, a variety of proposals have emerged, each designed to approach the challenge from a different angle.¹⁰ For example, lawmakers could:

Increase program funding. Increasing the amount of money flowing into the program could help preserve scheduled benefits and improve Social Security’s long-term finances. The Peter G. Peterson Foundation highlighted two ways this could be accomplished, including:¹¹

• Increasing the payroll tax rate.
• Raising or eliminating the cap on earnings subject to Social Security taxes to include income above $176,100.

Slow the growth of program costs. Another approach is to slow the growth of future program costs. Rather than bringing more money into the system, these proposals seek to reduce future obligations. Among the ideas that have been discussed are:¹¹

• Gradually increasing the full retirement age for future retirees.
• Reducing benefits for higher-income retirees or taxing benefits received by higher-income households.

Consider different investment approaches. A third option is to invest the trust funds differently. One recently discussed proposal would create a fund that invests a portion of Social Security’s assets in a diversified portfolio of stocks.¹² The idea is that a diversified investment portfolio could generate higher long-term returns than government bonds alone, potentially strengthening the program’s finances over time.¹²

At this point, most experts are not focusing on a single solution. Instead, they are evaluating which combinations of solutions might work because a series of modest changes may be easier to implement than one large change. While there is no consensus yet, a solution that combines various ideas could strengthen Social Security’s long-term financial health.

WEEKLY FOCUS – THINK ABOUT IT

“A nation’s greatness lies in its possibility of achievement in the present, and nothing helps it more than the consciousness of achievement in the past.”¹³

― Theodore Roosevelt, Former U.S. President

* These views are those of Carson Coaching, not the presenting Representative, the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, or Registered Investment Advisor, and should not be construed as investment advice.

* This newsletter was prepared by Carson Coaching. Carson Coaching is not affiliated with the named firm or broker/dealer.

* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.  However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.

* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.

* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.

* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.

* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.

* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.

* Gold represents the 3:00 p.m. (London time) gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association and is expressed in U.S. Dollars per fine troy ounce. The source for gold data is Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GOLDPMGBD228NLBM.

* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.

* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.

* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.

* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.

* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.

* The risk of loss in trading commodities and futures can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The high degree of leverage is often obtainable in commodity trading and can work against you as well as for you. The use of leverage can lead to large losses as well as gains.

* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.

* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.

* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.

* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.

* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.

* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.

* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.

Sources:

1 https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

2 https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/jobs-report-data-may-today?mod=hp_LEDE_C_3 or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/06-08-26-Barrons-Some-Sign-of-Job-Market%20-%202.pdf

3 https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_unemployment_rate

4 https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index

5 https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/federalfundsrate.asp

6 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-04/asian-stocks-poised-to-edge-lower-oil-steadies-markets-wrap or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/06-08-26-Bloomberg-Nasdaq-100-Sinks%20-%206.pdf

7 https://www.barrons.com/market-data?mod=BOL_TOPNAV or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/06-08-26-Barrons-DJIA-S&P-Nasdaq%20-%207.pdf

8 https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=202606

9 https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TRSUM/index.html

10 https://www.brookings.edu/articles/fixing-social-security-blueprint-for-a-bipartisan-solution

11 https://www.pgpf.org/article/lawmakers-are-running-out-of-time-to-fix-social-security

12 https://crr.bc.edu/can-equity-investments-help-social-securitys-long-run-financing

13 https://www.trlibrary.com/tr/fake-quotes

The Markets

It was a record-setting month.

“Sell in May and Go Away” was an investment strategy promoted by the Stock Trader’s Almanac. The idea was based on historic research that suggested holding stocks, as represented by the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow), from November to April delivered better returns than holding stocks all year round.¹

“What [the research] didn’t note is that if one used the S&P 500 index, which dates to 1927, one would have found the opposite: the summers almost always outperformed the winters,” reported Troy Segal of Investopedia.²

This year, most investors were happy with stock performance in May as the United States delivered one of the strongest monthly performances on record. Martin Baccardax of Barron’s explained, “The S&P 500…was on pace to power more than 5 [percent] higher…marking one of the best performances in May since the 1950s, on the back of surging chip and tech stocks that have carried markets through the worst of the U.S. war with Iran.”³

However, the performance comes with an important caveat. Market breadth – the number of stocks participating in the rally – was low. A source cited by Connor Smith of Barron’s stated:

“While the overall market is at all-time peaks, only two of the eleven sectors have managed to reach that status…It is a very rare situation indeed to be talking about a stock market at record highs at the same time that the Financials, of all sectors, are very nearly in correction mode (down nearly -10 [percent] from the record highs).”⁴

Last week, major U.S. stock indexes finished the month at record highs amid strong company earnings reports and hopes for peace between the U.S. and Iran, reported Avi Salzman of Barron’s.⁵ Yields on intermediate- and longer-term maturities of U.S. Treasuries moved lower over the week.⁶

Data as of 5/29/26	1-Week	YTD	1-Year	3-Year	5-Year	10-Year
Standard & Poor’s 500 Index	1.4%	10.7%	28.2%	21.7%	12.5%	13.7%
Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index	1.9	12.8	29.0	17.1	5.8	7.1
10-year Treasury Note (yield only)	4.5	N/A	4.4	3.7	1.6	1.8
S&P GSCI Gold Index	0.8	5.8	37.4	32.4	19.2	14.2
Bloomberg Commodity Index	-2.6	23.2	33.7	11.2	7.5	4.7

WHAT’S THE RIGHT WITHDRAWAL RATE IN RETIREMENT? One of the most common questions in retirement planning is also one of the most difficult to answer: How much can I safely withdraw from my portfolio each year? Many people hope for a simple answer, a percentage that will work for everyone, but different people have different needs.

The answer may be found between 3.9 percent and 5.7 percent

According to Morningstar’s The State of Retirement Income: 2025, a new retiree seeking a stable, inflation-adjusted income over a 30-year retirement could start with a withdrawal rate of about 3.9 percent. The estimate assumed the retiree’s portfolio was invested 30 to 50 percent in stocks with the rest in bonds and/or cash.⁷

“Because a 3.9 [percent] withdrawal rate—or just $39,000 on a $1 million portfolio—might be a bitter pill to swallow for new retirees, we also examined how flexible strategies can help boost starting safe withdrawal rates. Flexible strategies are effective because they help to prevent retirees from overspending in periods of market weakness, while giving them a raise in stronger market environments,” reported Amy C. Arnott, Christine Benz, and Jason Kephart of Morningstar.⁸

The researchers found that retirees who are willing to make modest spending adjustments over time may be able to support higher withdrawal rates. Some spending strategies supported initial withdrawal rates approaching 5.7 percent. However, the strategies generally required retirees to accept the possibility of variable income in each year of retirement.⁷

Retirement income is not a simple math problem

Your retirement income strategy will reflect your lifestyle and legacy goals, as well as other factors. One retiree may prefer a stable income and choose a more conservative initial withdrawal rate, while another may be comfortable with variable income and choose to make systematic adjustments to spending. Retirement planning often involves tradeoffs.

If you would like to talk about your plan or discuss retirement income strategies, get in touch. We’re here for you.

WEEKLY FOCUS – THINK ABOUT IT

“Chinese farm owner Zuo Xiaoyong was stunned to see his job ad for shepherds to work in the remote and rugged grasslands south of Mongolia becoming the day’s top trending social media post. More than 700 people applied for the two positions, ‌including white-collar employees from megacities Shanghai and Chongqing, factory workers across China, and even university graduates…the shepherds would each get 8,000 yuan ($1,178) per month, well above the national urban average in private companies of roughly 6,000 yuan, and have accommodation and groceries provided.”⁹

― Liangping Gao and Marius Zaharia, Reuters via Yahoo!, May 27, 2026

* These views are those of Carson Coaching, not the presenting Representative, the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, or Registered Investment Advisor, and should not be construed as investment advice.

* This newsletter was prepared by Carson Coaching. Carson Coaching is not affiliated with the named firm or broker/dealer.

* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.  However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.

* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.

* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.

* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.

* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.

* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.

* Gold represents the 3:00 p.m. (London time) gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association and is expressed in U.S. Dollars per fine troy ounce. The source for gold data is Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GOLDPMGBD228NLBM.

* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.

* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.

* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.

* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.

* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.

* The risk of loss in trading commodities and futures can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The high degree of leverage is often obtainable in commodity trading and can work against you as well as for you. The use of leverage can lead to large losses as well as gains.

* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.

* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.

* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.

* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.

* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.

* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. * Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.

Sources:

1 https://www.stocktradersalmanac.com/strategy.aspx

2 https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sell-in-may-and-go-away.asp

3 https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-tech-micron-nvidia-amd-4803938b?mod=hp_LEDE_C_1_B_1 or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/06-01-26-Barrons-Sell-in-May-%203.pdf

4 https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-today-052926?mod=hp_LEDE_C_1 or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/06-01-26-Barrons-Nasdaq-Nears-Best%20-%204.pdf

5 https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-stock-market-may-soon-regret-the-end-of-earnings-season-96e8d83f? or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/06-01-26-Barrons-Stock-Market-May-Soon%20-%205.pdf

6 https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=202605

7 https://www.morningstar.com/content/cs-assets/v3/assets/blt9415ea4cc4157833/bltb73b87c5d0c70ead/692f43f57737a31596684522/working_file_11.19_FINAL_REVISE.pdf or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/06-01-36-Morningstar-State-of-Retirement-Income%20-%207.pdf

8 https://www.morningstar.com/retirement/whats-safe-retirement-withdrawal-rate-2026

9 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/job-ad-shepherds-goes-viral-060242204.html

The Markets

Feeling the pinch of rising prices.

The cost of living is increasing in many places around the world. “The war has sent oil prices soaring and led to shortages of products like jet fuel. Coal prices have also risen as some power companies switch to coal from natural gas to generate electricity. Countries that depend on other fuel sources—from renewables to nuclear power—have been spared some of the economic hardship so far,” reported Avi Salzman of Barron’s.¹

In April, prices in the United States rose at an annual rate of 3.8 percent, with energy prices up 17.9 percent year over year.² That was a significant increase from the prior month when prices rose at an annual rate of 3.3 percent, with energy prices rising at a 12.5 percent pace.³

For Americans, higher prices have been especially noticeable at the gas pump.

Last Saturday, the average price for regular gasoline was $4.53 per gallon in the United States, and the price of diesel (used by long-haul trucks moving goods across the U.S.) was $5.63 per gallon, according to AAA.4 Overall, estimates suggest that Americans have spent an extra $20 billion on gasoline due to the war with Iran, reported Enda Curran, Mark Schroers, Ye Xie, and Jorgelina Do Rosario of Bloomberg.⁵

Americans are not feeling optimistic

When economists want to know how people feel about their personal financial situations and the economy in general, they look at consumer sentiment. In May, the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment dropped, reflecting continued concerns about the economy and what may happen over the next year.⁶

Consumer Sentiment Index6        May 2026	Month to Month Change	Year to Year Change
Current economic conditions:	-12.8%	-22.2%
Consumer expectations (for the next 12 months):	-8.3%	-7.9%

“Sentiment is now just below the previous historical trough seen in June 2022. The cost of living continues to be a first-order concern, with 57 [percent] of consumers spontaneously mentioning that high prices were eroding their personal finances, up from 50 [percent] last month,” wrote Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu.⁶

Last week, solid company earnings and signs of progress toward an agreement with Iran pushed major U.S. stock indexes higher for the eighth week in a row, reported Karishma Vanjani of Barron’s.⁷ Yields on U.S. Treasuries eased a bit last week.⁸

Data as of 5/22/26	1-Week	YTD	1-Year	3-Year	5-Year	10-Year
Standard & Poor’s 500 Index	0.9%	9.2%	27.9%	21.3%	12.2%	13.8%
Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index	1.6	10.7	27.9	15.4	5.7	7.2
10-year Treasury Note (yield only)	4.6	N/A	4.6	3.7	1.6	1.8
S&P GSCI Gold Index	-0.9	5.0	37.1	31.7	19.3	13.8
Bloomberg Commodity Index	-1.6	26.4	36.1	11.2	8.7	5.1

WHAT DO YOU KNOW ABOUT AMERICA’S MONEY MOOD? While U.S. consumer sentiment is lower overall, not every American household experiences the economy the same way. Some families are stretching to cover basic expenses, while others are buoyed by strong investment returns. Test your knowledge by taking this brief quiz.

1.   According to a recent Gallup poll, what financial issue did Americans say was the top problem facing their families this year?⁹

• a.   Student loan payments
• b.   Cost of living/inflation
• c.   Lack of retirement savings
• d.   Credit card debt

2.   Seventy-three percent of Americans describe one issue as a “very big problem” in a recent Pew Research Center survey. What was it?¹⁰

• a.   Unemployment
• b.   Artificial intelligence
• c.   Healthcare affordability
• d.   Stock market volatility

4.   According to a recent Gallup survey, what percentage of Americans are moderately or very worried they won’t have enough money for retirement?⁹

• a. 30 percent
• b. 48 percent
• c. 62 percent
• d. 87 percent

WEEKLY FOCUS – THINK ABOUT IT

“In the history of art there are periods when bread seems so beautiful that it nearly gets into museums.”¹²

― Janet Flanner, Journalist

Answers: 1) b; 2) c; 3) c; 4) c

* These views are those of Carson Coaching, not the presenting Representative, the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, or Registered Investment Advisor, and should not be construed as investment advice.

* This newsletter was prepared by Carson Coaching. Carson Coaching is not affiliated with the named firm or broker/dealer.

* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.  However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.

* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.

* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.

* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.

* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.

* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.

* Gold represents the 3:00 p.m. (London time) gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association and is expressed in U.S. Dollars per fine troy ounce. The source for gold data is Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GOLDPMGBD228NLBM.

* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.

* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.

* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.

* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.

* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.

* The risk of loss in trading commodities and futures can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The high degree of leverage is often obtainable in commodity trading and can work against you as well as for you. The use of leverage can lead to large losses as well as gains.

* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.

* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.

* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.

* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.

* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.

* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. * Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.

Sources:

1 https://www.barrons.com/articles/renewable-solar-energy-iran-war-bb3f0249? or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/05-26-26-Barrons-Renewable-Energy-Is-Booming%20-%201.pdf

2 https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

3 https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_04102026.htm

4 https://gasprices.aaa.com or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/05-26-26-AAA-Fuel-Prices%20-%204.pdf

5 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2026-05-21/iran-war-upends-inflation-bets-in-50-trillion-debt-market-safe-haven or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/05-26-26-Bloomberg-50-Trillion-Safe-Haven%20-%205.pdf

6 https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/05-26-26-U-of-M-Survey-of-Consumers%20-%206.pdf

7 https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-today-052226/card/the-dow-notches-a-record-high-as-s-p-500-rises-for-eight-straight-weeks-u6jG2KGhKEoN5psACDZP or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/05-26-26-Barrons-The-Dow-Posts-a-Record%20-%207.pdf

8 https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=202605

9 https://news.gallup.com/poll/708905/affordability-dominates-americans-financial-worries.aspx

10 https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2026/05/11/americans-see-health-care-costs-deficit-inflation-as-big-problems-facing-the-nation/

11 https://www.barrons.com/articles/consumer-sentiment-lower-income-shoppers-gas-prices-872889bc or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/05-26-26-Barrons-Americas-Consumer-Divide%20-%2011.pdf

12 https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/tag/cost-of-living\

The Markets

The stock market rally continued.

April ended with the Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) and Nasdaq Composite Indexes at record-high levels, having delivered their best monthly returns since 2020, reported Connor Smith of Barron’s.¹ In April, investors:

• Leaned into optimism, remaining hopeful for progress in the Middle East. Paul R. LaMonica of Barron’s reported, “Markets are looking beyond the Iran war to a year of healthy profits and stock gains. Investors in our latest Big Money poll share that sentiment. Despite the Middle East conflict and other hurdles facing the economy, more than 54 [percent] of Big Money participants said they had a bullish outlook for the next 12 months, up from 47 [percent] in our survey in October.”²

• Embraced “pick-and-shovel” companies. During the gold rush, some of the most profitable businesses provided the tools gold miners needed. Today, pick-and-shovel companies provide semiconductor chips and other datacenter necessities. So, while concerns persist about the enormous amounts being spent on artificial intelligence, investors have enthusiastically embraced the beneficiaries of that spending, reported Smith.¹

• Focused on corporate earnings. Strong overall corporate earnings also drove stock prices higher. At the end of last week, 63 percent of S&P 500 companies had reported first quarter earnings. The blended net profit margin for the Index was 14.7 percent. If profits remain at this level, it will be the highest net profit margin reported since FactSet began tracking it in 2009, reported John Butters of FactSet.³

Last week, major U.S. stock markets finished the week higher.⁴ Yields on many maturities of U.S. Treasuries moved higher over the week, as well.⁵

Data as of 5/1/26	1-Week	YTD	1-Year	3-Year	5-Year	10-Year
Standard & Poor’s 500 Index	0.9%	5.6%	29.0%	20.2%	11.5%	13.3%
Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index	0.5	8.2	30.2	14.6	5.4	6.5
10-year Treasury Note (yield only)	4.4	N/A	4.2	3.6	1.6	1.9
S&P GSCI Gold Index	-2.0	7.0	44.1	32.6	21.0	13.6
Bloomberg Commodity Index	3.0	27.8	39.1	10.6	9.0	5.2

THE BOND MARKET WAS LESS OPTIMISTIC THAN THE STOCK MARKET. While stock markets rallied to new highs last week, the bond market moved in the other direction. In the United States, yields on Treasuries rose while prices fell.⁵ Jared Blikre of Yahoo! Finance reported:

“The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield…is back near the danger zone that has sent stocks tumbling before. That zone is roughly 5 [percent]…But this is not just a U.S. story. Global bonds have been under pressure, with yields rising across major markets as investors reassess inflation, central bank policy, and government debt supply.”⁶

In the United States, inflation, central bank policy, and government spending were top of mind last week.

Inflation moved in the wrong direction, rising to a two-year high.In March, Americans spent significantly more on gasoline and energy, health care, cars and parts, and insurance.^7,8 The personal consumption expenditures price (PCE) index, which is one of the Federal Reserve’s preferred measures of inflation, showed:

• Headline inflation rose to 3.5 percent annualized in March (from 2.8 percent annualized in February).⁹
• Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose to 3.2 percent annualized in March (from 3.0 percent annualized in February).⁷

The Fed left rates unchanged. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which is the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) rate-setting body, kept the range for the federal funds rate at 3.5 percent to 3.75 percent. The accompanying statement confirmed that:¹⁰

• Economic growth is steady,
• Employment gains have remained low, on average,
• Inflation remains above the Fed’s 2 percent target, and
• Conflict in the Middle East has created a high level of economic uncertainty.

There was dissent among committee members. “Four officials voted against the decision, including three who objected to language in their post-meeting statement that suggested the central bank would eventually resume cutting rates,” reported Catarina Saraiva of Bloomberg. The possibility of a rate hike surprised markets, and yields on shorter-term Treasuries increased.¹¹

Government spending lifted economic growth. Usually, consumer spending is the primary driver of economic growth in the United States. Last quarter, consumer spending cooled and economic growth was driven by business investment and government spending.¹²

While improving economic growth is wonderful, higher government spending is less so. Last week, Fitch Ratings warned that the U.S. deficit and debt are far larger than those of other countries with an AA rating. Fitch reported, “The fiscal position [of the United States] will deteriorate in 2026 due to tax cuts in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), although tariff revenues will offset half the OBBBA’s fiscal impact.”¹³

Taken together, last week’s data painted a complex picture for investors. Rising stock markets, higher inflation, a divided Fed, and a cautious bond market serve as important reminders to stay diversified and maintain a long-term perspective in uncertain times.

WEEKLY FOCUS – THINK ABOUT IT

“He that can have patience can have what he will.”¹⁴―  Benjamin Franklin, Poor Richard’s Almanack

* These views are those of Carson Coaching, not the presenting Representative, the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, or Registered Investment Advisor, and should not be construed as investment advice.

* This newsletter was prepared by Carson Coaching. Carson Coaching is not affiliated with the named firm or broker/dealer.

* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.  However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.

* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.

* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.

* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.

* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.

* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.

* Gold represents the 3:00 p.m. (London time) gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association and is expressed in U.S. Dollars per fine troy ounce. The source for gold data is Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GOLDPMGBD228NLBM.

* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.

* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.

* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.

* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.

* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.

* The risk of loss in trading commodities and futures can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The high degree of leverage is often obtainable in commodity trading and can work against you as well as for you. The use of leverage can lead to large losses as well as gains.

* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.

* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.

* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.

* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.

* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.

* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. * Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.

Sources:

1 https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-today-043026/card/s-p-500-nasdaq-hits-records-meta-s-troubles-are-the-market-s-gains–vkAFbZckZvQvV6cXaOul? or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/05-04-2026-Barrons-S&P-500-Nasdaq-Hit-Records%20-%201.pdf

2 https://www.barrons.com/articles/barrons-big-money-poll-stock-market-outlook-5461949d or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/05-04-2026-Barrons-Dont-Fret-the-War%20-%202.pdf

3https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_050126.pdf, page 15

4 https://www.barrons.com/market-data?mod=BOL_TOPNAV or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/05-04-2026-Barrons-DJIA-S&P-Nasdaq%20-%204.pdf

5 https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026

6 https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/article/the-bond-market-is-testing-washington-again-chart-of-the-day-100000179.html

7 https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-march-2026 (Report plus Table 2.8.11, line 32 and 37, see pdf)

8 https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2025-04/pi0325.pdf

9 https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/05-04-2026-bea-National-Income-and-Product-Accounts%20-%209.pdf

10 https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260429a.htm

11 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-29/fed-holds-rates-three-officials-dissent-against-easing-bias?itm_source=record&itm_campaign=The_Fed&itm_content=Fed_Holds_Rates-1 or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/05-04-2026-Bloomberg-Divided-Fed-Holds-Rates%20-%2011.pdf

12https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/?reqid=19&step=2&isuri=1&categories=survey#eyJhcHBpZCI6MTksInN0ZXBzIjpbMSwyLDNdLCJkYXRhIjpbWyJjYXRlZ29yaWVzIiwiU3VydmV5Il0sWyJOSVBBX1RhYmxlX0xpc3QiLCIzMiJdXX0= or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/05-04-2026-bea-National-Data%20-%2012.pdf

13 https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/widening-us-deficit-climbing-debt-are-key-sovereign-rating-challenge-30-04-2026

14https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/tag/patience