The Markets

Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Warsh shakes the market’s confidence.

Former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke has said that “monetary policy is 98 percent talk and only 2 percent action.” He meant that public statements are powerful tools that can shape the market’s expectations around future Fed actions.1 That proved true last week, when the Fed appeared to lose credibility during a relatively brief press conference held by its new Chair Kevin Warsh.

The Fed did what markets expected, but the new Chair did not

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met last week to determine a path for interest rates. In its post-meeting statement, the committee confirmed:

• Inflation remains high.
• The Fed is committed to bringing it lower.
• Most voting members were not ready to raise thefederal funds rate yet.²

That was exactly what Wall Street expected,³ and stocks experienced a brief relief rally, reported Connor Smith of Barron’s.⁴ Then, during the press conference, “Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh explained his decision to keep rates steady with a series of contradictory, confounding, and supremely confident answers to reporters’ questions,” reported Alex Rosenberg of Barron’s.⁵

Bond markets pushed Treasury rates higher

After Chair Warsh’s comments, the bond market expressed its opinion. Yields on longer U.S. Treasuries moved sharply higher. “Benchmark 30-year Treasury bond yields, the market’s best representation of long-term inflation risks and expanding government deficits, are trading at the highest levels since 2007,” reported Baccardax.⁶

Higher interest rates can help slow the rate of inflation by making borrowing more expensive and reducing demand for goods and services.⁷ Often, the FOMC increases the federal funds rate to accomplish this. In this case, it was the work of bond vigilantes, investors who think inflation risks are greater than the rest of the market assumes, and who act on that belief, reported Martin Baccardax of Barron’s.⁶

Higher rates mean higher interest payments on the national debt

Since the U.S. government borrows to fund the national debt by issuing Treasuries, higher rates also will increase the amount of interest the U.S. government pays to finance the debt. The Peter G. Peterson Foundation reported:

“As the national debt grows and interest rates rise, the United States will spend more of its budget on the cost of servicing that debt — crowding out opportunities to invest in the economy. Interest costs are set to become the fastest-growing part of the federal budget and will total $16.2 trillion in the next 10 years alone, according to the CBO [Congressional Budget Office].”⁸

It was a tumultuous week for U.S. stocks, too. Major indexes moved lower during the week before rebounding to finish the week higher.⁹

Data as of 7/31/26	1-Week	YTD	1-Year	3-Year	5-Year	10-Year
Standard & Poor’s 500 Index	1.1%	9.4%	18.2%	17.7%	11.3%	13.2%
Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index	1.8	11.6	24.2	14.4	5.8	6.7
10-year Treasury Note (yield only)	4.8	N/A	4.4	4.0	1.2	1.5
S&P GSCI Gold Index	-0.6	-5.4	22.7	26.9	17.7	11.7
Bloomberg Commodity Index	-2.1	20.4	30.5	7.2	6.6	4.8

S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, S&P GSCI Gold Index, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends. The three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods. 

Sources: Yahoo! Finance; MarketWatch; djindexes.com; U.S. Treasury.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.

THE RETIREMENT BALANCING ACT. The amount of income you receive in retirement will depend on a lot more than your Social Security benefits and distributions from your retirement savings accounts. The rules governing Medicare, Social Security, and taxation are complex and can have unexpected effects on retirement income for those who are unfamiliar with how they work together.

Some Medicare costs are deducted from Social Security benefits

While most of the changes to Medicare and Social Security for 2026 and 2027 are relatively modest, they illustrate how one program can affect another. Take Social Security. The average monthly retirement benefit is projected to increase by about $75 in 2027 if the projected 3.6 percent cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) holds, according to Deirdre Shesgreen of AARP. The purpose of the annual COLA is to help benefits keep pace with inflation over time.¹⁰

Medicare costs also are expected to increase in 2027. The Medicare Trustees Report projects that the standard Medicare Part B premium will increase by $6.60 a month in 2027. In addition, many beneficiaries will pay higher deductibles, prescription drug premiums, and out-of-pocket costs.¹¹ Since the Social Security Administration can automatically deduct Part B and Part D premiums from your monthly benefits, those increases take a bite out of the larger Social Security check.¹²

Taxes add another layer of complexity

The amount of taxable income you receive as a retiree will affect the taxability of your Social Security benefits and the cost of your Medicare benefits. Here’s how it works:

• Almost 50 percent of retirees pay taxes on Social Security benefits. Over the past few decades, the number of retirees whose Social Security benefits are taxable has risen significantly because the income levels that determine benefit taxability have not changed for decades. As a result, today, a single taxpayer with taxable income of $25,000 or more, and joint filers with taxable income of $34,000 or more, usually owes taxes on a portion of their Social Security benefits.¹³

• Higher-income Medicare enrollees pay surcharges. If you fall into the higher-income category for Medicare, you may pay Income-Related Monthly Adjustment Amount (IRMAA) surcharges on Medicare Part B and Part D premiums. Because IRMAA is based your most recent federal income tax return, a large withdrawal from a traditional IRA, a sizeable required minimum distribution (RMD), or other taxable income distributions can increase both federal income taxes and future Medicare premiums.¹²

Retirement income planning requires a thorough understanding of the rules and changes that affect Social Security benefits, Medicare costs, and taxation. Knowing how one change influences another can help retirees make informed decisions and gain a clearer understanding of how to maximize retirement income. The timing and source of retirement income can be just as important as the amount received.

There are strategies that can help retirees effectively manage retirement income. They may spread withdrawals over multiple years or transform taxable income into tax-free income by converting traditional IRAs to Roth IRAs during lower-income years. The strategy that’s right for you will depend on your personal financial circumstances. If you would like to learn more, please get in touch.

WEEKLY FOCUS – THINK ABOUT IT

“Words have no power to impress the mind without the exquisite horror of their reality.”¹⁴― Edgar Allen Poe, Author

* These views are those of Carson Coaching, not the presenting Representative, the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, or Registered Investment Advisor, and should not be construed as investment advice.

* This newsletter was prepared by Carson Coaching. Carson Coaching is not affiliated with the named firm or broker/dealer.

* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.  However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.

* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.

* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.

* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.

* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.

* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.

* Gold represents the 3:00 p.m. (London time) gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association and is expressed in U.S. Dollars per fine troy ounce. The source for gold data is Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GOLDPMGBD228NLBM.

* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.

* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.

* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.

* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.

* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.

* The risk of loss in trading commodities and futures can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The high degree of leverage is often obtainable in commodity trading and can work against you as well as for you. The use of leverage can lead to large losses as well as gains.

* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.

* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.

* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.

* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.

* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.

* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.

* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.

Sources:

1 https://www.brookings.edu/articles/inaugurating-a-new-blog/

2 https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260729a.htm

3 https://www.morningstar.com/economy/what-expect-july-fed-meeting

4 https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-today-major-indexes-fall-after-fed-press-conference-d6304e45? or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/08-03-26-Barrons-Review-and-Preview%20-%204.pdf

5 https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-survives-turbulent-week-meta-warsh-d83256da or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/08-03-26-Barrons-Flying-Blind-Stock-Market-Survives%20-%205.pdf

6 https://www.barrons.com/articles/fed-credibility-crisis-stock-market-bonds-ada3194c? or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/08-03-26-Barrons-Fed-Faces-Credibility-Crisis%20-%206.pdf

7 https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/12/inflation-interest-rate-relationship.asp

8 https://www.pgpf.org/our-national-debt/

9 https://www.barrons.com/market-data?mod=BOL_TOPNAV or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/08-03-26-Barrons-DJIA-S&P-Nasdaq%20-%209.pdf

10 https://www.aarp.org/social-security/cola-2027-increase-estimate/

11 https://www.cms.gov/oact/tr/2026 (Pages 205 and 208)

12 https://www.ssa.gov/benefits/medicare/medicare-premiums.html

13 https://www.congress.gov/crs_external_products/IF/PDF/IF11397/IF11397.4.pdf

14 https://www.goodreads.com/author/quotes/4624490.Edgar_Allan_Poe

The Markets

Sometimes, the road is rough.

In the early 1900s, riding in new-fangled automobiles was a bone-jarring and physically exhausting experience. Roads were unpaved and rutted, jolting passengers relentlessly. Shock absorbers changed that. Working in tandem with the spring suspension, they made the ride a lot smoother. ^1,2

A two-part system smooths the ride for investors, too. It includes asset allocation and diversification.

Asset allocation can help smooth portfolio volatility. In recent years, stock markets have experienced significant volatility because of “systematic risks”, which include events that affect the economy and financial markets. Systematic risks can be changes in market sentiment, inflation, government policies, and geopolitics.³

Market- and economy-wide events are felt broadly, although they often have a bigger impact on some assets than others. As a result, one way to manage systematic risk, particularly market risk, is through asset allocation. Dividing investments among asset classes that may respond differently to changes in the economy or market can help reduce the impact of those changes on a portfolio.⁴

Diversification can make the ride more comfortable, too. Diversification helps investors manage “unsystematic risk”, which is the chance that a company or industry will be affected by poor performance, regulation, new competition, innovation, or something else that affects its potential growth.⁵

A well-diversified portfolio typically includes more than one type of investment within an asset class.⁴ For example, an investor might diversify by owning small, mid-sized, and large company stocks across diverse industries inside of the United States and in other countries. If an investor owns 30 stocks and three perform poorly, the impact of the weaker performers on the overall portfolio return is reduced by the stronger performers. 

It’s important to remember that a car’s suspension system smooths the ride without altering the road. Asset allocation and diversification are similar. They’re essential aspects of the investment process that help investors manage risk. However, neither asset allocation nor diversification will prevent a market downturn or eliminate losses.

Last week, major U.S. stock indexes moved lower,⁶ and U.S. Treasuries moved higher.⁷ Randall Forsyth of Barron’s reported, “Real risk-free bond yields haven’t been this high in years. Real five-to-10-year yields hadn’t reached current levels since 2023-24. As for 30-year maturities, you would have to go back to the 2008-09 financial crisis to encounter real yields of nearly 3 percent. Real interest rates are what you earn after the bite taken by inflation.”⁸

Data as of 7/24/26	1-Week	YTD	1-Year	3-Year	5-Year	10-Year
Standard & Poor’s 500 Index	-0.6%	8.3%	16.5%	17.6%	10.9%	13.1%
Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index	0.3	9.6	18.4	13.8	5.7	6.7
10-year Treasury Note (yield only)	4.7	N/A	4.4	3.9	1.3	1.6
S&P GSCI Gold Index	1.3	-4.9	20.4	27.3	18.0	12.0
Bloomberg Commodity Index	2.7	23.0	29.5	7.8	6.9	4.9

S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, S&P GSCI Gold Index, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends. The three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods. 

Sources: Yahoo! Finance; MarketWatch; djindexes.com; U.S. Treasury.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.

BABY BOOMERS HAVE ABOUT $93 TRILLION, BUT IT WON’T ALL GO TO THEIR HEIRS. In the United States, some in younger generations perceive baby boomers as the generation that caught every financial break. They believe boomers benefitted from more affordable housing, lower tuition costs, and rising stock markets. When baby boomers look back, many recall facing significant economic headwinds during their working years, including double-digit mortgage rates, high inflation, and recessions.⁹

Regardless of the circumstances, baby boomers have accumulated a lot of wealth. When compared to previous generations, baby boomers have more wealth than older generations did at the same age, according to Richard Fry of Pew Research.¹⁰

Household wealth by generation10 Median wealth of U.S. households headed by 58- to 76-year-olds in 2024 dollars
Baby boomers in 2022	$432,200
Silent generation in 2001	$335,900
Greatest generation in 1983	$185,300

In total, boomers have about $93 trillion saved and invested, according to 2026 research from a digital payments firm.¹¹ That’s about three times the U.S. gross domestic product, or GDP, which is the value of all goods and services our country produced last year.¹² The amount that is passed on to heirs will be far less for several reasons:

1. $5 trillion in debt. Many baby boomers are still paying mortgages on their homes in retirement. Beyond housing, many also have credit card debt and auto, personal or business loans that will be repaid from their assets. ¹¹

• Wealth is not distributed evenly. Of the $88 trillion remaining after debts are paid, about 33 percent is held by the top one percent of households. When this group is left out of the calculations, the remaining baby boomers have about $60 trillion.¹¹

“…while excluding the top 1 percent makes the wealth estimate more realistic, it does not make the transfer democratic…most remaining wealth ($44 trillion) is still held by affluent boomers in the top 90 to 99 percent of households. In contrast, the bottom 90 percent of boomer households hold just $16 trillion,” according to the digital payments firm.¹¹

• Retirement is expensive. A significant share of many households’ savings will be spent during retirement. In total, the researchers estimated that “$36 trillion will pass to younger generations over the next 20 years, equivalent to roughly $515,000 per inheriting household.”¹¹

Estate planning is important for many reasons. It ensures your assets are distributed as you want them to be. In addition, an estate plan can directly affect the amount heirs receive by minimizing taxes, avoiding probate, and reducing the likelihood of inheritance disputes. If you don’t have an estate plan or you haven’t reviewed your plan recently, get in touch. We can help.

WEEKLY FOCUS – THINK ABOUT IT

“We are cups, constantly and quietly being filled. The trick is, knowing how to tip ourselves over and let the beautiful stuff out.”¹³ – Ray Bradbury, Author

Sources:

1 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shock_absorber

2 https://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/how-america-joined-its-two-great-loves-cars-and-the-outdoors

3 https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/systematicrisk.asp

4 https://www.investor.gov/introduction-investing/getting-started/asset-allocation

5 https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/career-map/sell-side/risk-management/idiosyncratic-risk/

6 https://www.barrons.com/market-data?mod=BOL_TOPNAV or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/07-27-26-Barrons-DJIA-S&P-Nasdaq%20-%206.pdf

7 https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=202607

⁸ https://www.barrons.com/articles/rising-interest-rates-danger-markets-tips-215b867d? or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/07-27-26-Barrons-Rising-Interest-Rates-Are-A-Danger%20-%208.pdf

9 https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/02/28/most-in-the-u-s-say-young-adults-today-face-more-challenges-than-their-parents-generation-in-some-key-areas/

10 https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2026/02/11/are-baby-boomers-wealthier-than-previous-generations-of-older-adults/

11 https://usa.visa.com/partner-with-us/visa-consulting-analytics/economic-insights/great-wealth-transfer-reality-check.html

12 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDP

13 https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/ray_bradbury_140827

The Markets

Rethinking expectations for inflation and artificial intelligence (AI).

It was a rough week for Wall Street. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P 500) fell about 1.5 percent, the Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.8 percent, and the Dow posted its weakest weekly performance since late March, reported Naomi Buchanan of Barron’s.¹ Here’s what happened:

• Price increases slowed. The week started with encouraging news. Price pressures eased in June, in part because of lower energy costs, according to the Consumer Price Index report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Inflation was up just 3.5 percent year over year in June, which was significantly lower than May’s 4.2 percent.² Investors welcomed the news because lower inflation made it less likely the Federal Reserve will raise rates to bring prices lower, reported Jeff Cox of CNBC.³

• The U.S.-Iran conflict resumed. Inflation relief was short-lived as hostilities between the United States and Iran ramped up, causing oil prices to rise significantly last week. “The average price of diesel fuel in the U.S. has increased again to more than $5 a gallon, according to the AAA, and the average price of gas is almost $4, returning to their highs before the June memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran,” reported Aram Roston of The Guardian.⁴

• Investors reassessed AI. Last week, a Chinese start-up company introduced a new AI open-weight model that was said to outperform even the most advanced models offered by American companies and do the work at a lower cost. That led investors to re-evaluate the outlook for AI. Nate Wolf of Barron’s explained, “Enterprises have increasingly used cheap open-weight models for simple tasks to save on token prices. But if [the Chinese AI model] can mimic advanced U.S. models at a fraction of the cost per token, it begs questions about the sustainability of the entire AI investment boom…”⁵

While many investors have been laser-focused on all things related to AI, other sectors of the market have been performing well. You don’t see it in the performance of the capitalization-weighted S&P 500 Index because technology stocks are very large and have an outsized impact on the Index. However, you can see it in the performance of the equal-weighted S&P 500 Index, which assigns an equal weight to every company.⁶ Joel Leon of Bloomberg reported:

“Even as chip stocks dragged the S&P 500 lower on Thursday, a majority of stocks in the benchmark rose, signaling healthy market breadth. The S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index finished at an all-time high on Thursday.”⁷ It’s a reminder of the value of diversification.

Last week, major U.S. stock indexes finished lower,⁸ and U.S. Treasuries gained value as yields declined. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond moved lower to end the week at 5.06 percent.⁹

Data as of 7/17/26	1-Week	YTD	1-Year	3-Year	5-Year	10-Year
Standard & Poor’s 500 Index	-1.6%	8.9%	18.4%	18.1%	11.9%	13.2%
Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index	-1.8	9.3	21.2	13.9	5.9	6.7
10-year Treasury Note (yield only)	4.5	N/A	4.5	3.8	1.2	1.6
S&P GSCI Gold Index	-1.8	-6.1	19.8	26.9	17.6	11.8
Bloomberg Commodity Index	3.6	19.8	25.8	8.2	7.4	4.3

S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, S&P GSCI Gold Index, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends. The three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods. 

Sources: Yahoo! Finance; MarketWatch; djindexes.com; U.S. Treasury.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.

BLUE RIBBONS, BUTTER SCULPTURES, AND BIG MONEY. State fairs are famous for giant pumpkins, prize-winning livestock, and all kinds of deep-fried food on a stick. They’re also big business, drawing millions of visitors, supporting local economies, and celebrating American agriculture. See what you know about state fairs by taking this brief quiz.

1. In 2025, the Texas State Fair said “howdy” to about 2 million visitors, but that was about 20 percent fewer than had attended in 2024. What reason did Fair officials say was responsible for the change?¹⁰
   • A. The Texas-Oklahoma football game was on one of the Fair’s busiest days.
   • B. The popular greased pig contest wasn’t scheduled for 2025.
   • C. Fair officials no longer allowed food to be served on skewers.
   • D. Corn dogs were limited to one per customer.
2. Since 1911, the Iowa State Fair has featured the famous Butter Cow statue. “The Butter Cow starts with a wood, metal, wire and steel mesh frame and about 600 lbs. of low moisture, pure cream Iowa butter,” according to the Fair’s website. The cow could butter more than 19,000 slices of toast.¹¹ How much is all that butter worth?¹²
   • A. About $10,000
   • B. About $20,000
   • C. About $30,000
   • D. About $40,000
3. One state fair sold more than 330,000 cream puffs during its 2025 run.¹³ Which state has turned this dessert into a signature fair attraction?
   • A. Minnesota
   • B. California
   • C. Pennsylvania
   • D. Wisconsin
4. One of America’s oldest state fairs traces its roots to 1841. “There an assembled 10,000-15,000 people heard speeches by notables and viewed animal exhibits, a plowing contest, and samples of manufactured goods for the farm and home,” according to the history of the Fair.¹⁴ Which state held the fair?
   • A. New York
   • B. Massachusetts
   • C.Wyoming
   • D. Nebraska

State fairs may be known for funnel cakes and Ferris wheels, but they also showcase people, products, and traditions that shape local communities. What’s your favorite part of your state’s fair?

WEEKLY FOCUS – THINK ABOUT IT

“Farming looks mighty easy when your plow is a pencil, and you’re a thousand miles from the corn field.”¹⁵

 – Dwight D. Eisenhower, Former U.S. President Answers: 1) a; 2) c; 3) d; 4) a

* These views are those of Carson Coaching, not the presenting Representative, the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, or Registered Investment Advisor, and should not be construed as investment advice.

* This newsletter was prepared by Carson Coaching. Carson Coaching is not affiliated with the named firm or broker/dealer.

* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.  However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.

* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.

* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.

* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.

* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.

* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.

* Gold represents the 3:00 p.m. (London time) gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association and is expressed in U.S. Dollars per fine troy ounce. The source for gold data is Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GOLDPMGBD228NLBM.

* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.

* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.

* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.

* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.

* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.

* The risk of loss in trading commodities and futures can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The high degree of leverage is often obtainable in commodity trading and can work against you as well as for you. The use of leverage can lead to large losses as well as gains.

* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.

* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.

* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.

* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.

* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.

* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.

* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.

Sources

1 https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-today-071726?mod=hp_LEDE_C_1 or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/07-20-26-Barrons-Dow-Ends-Worst-Week%20-%201.pdf

2 https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2026/consumer-prices-up-4-2-percent-over-the-year-ended-may-2026.htm

3 https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/14/consumer-price-index-inflation-report-june-2026.html

4 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jul/16/us-gas-prices-rise-strait-of-hormuz

5 https://www.barrons.com/articles/moonshot-ai-alibaba-tech-stocks-189f80f2?mod=hp_LEDE_C_1_B_1 or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/07-20-26-Barrons-Moonshot-AIs-Latest-Model%20-%205.pdf

6 https://www.investopedia.com/articles/exchangetradedfunds/08/market-equal-weight.asp or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/07-20-26-DJIA-S&P-Nasdaq%20-%206.pdf

7 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-17/us-stock-index-futures-slide-as-jitters-grow-on-chip-selloff?srnd=homepage-americas or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/07-20-26-Bloomberg-US-Stocks-End-Week-Lower-%207.pdf

8 https://www.barrons.com/market-data?eafs_enabled=false

9 https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=202607

10 https://www.cbsnews.com/texas/news/state-fair-of-texas-2025-numbers-less-visitors/

11 https://www.iowastatefair.org/about/butter-cow

12 https://www.commonsenseinstituteus.org/iowa/research/jobs-and-our-economy/economic-impact-of-the-iowa-state-fair-2025?utm_source=chatgpt.com

13 https://wistatefair.com/fair/original-cream-puffs

14 https://nysfair.ny.gov/about/fair-history

15 https://www.agdaily.com/lifestyle/10-iconic-farming-quotes-history/

The Markets

America’s wealth looks different than it did just a couple of generations ago.

A lot has changed since 1989. Back then, there were no smartphones or streaming services. There wasn’t an app for anything.¹ The first digital camera arrived the previous year,² and the first handheld global positioning system (GPS) became available in 1989.³ While technology began reshaping everyday life, another change began unfolding, too.  

Between 1989 and 2022, after adjusting for inflation, the wealth held by families in the United States almost quadrupled. It rose from $52 trillion (in 2022 dollars) to $199 trillion, according to data from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).⁴ The composition of that wealth changed, too.

• Wall Street has become Main Street. More household wealth is invested in stocks than ever before. “Some 34 [percent] of US household wealth is now in stocks — the highest proportion on record,” reported Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal of Bloomberg. “These are obviously aggregate figures, and equity ownership is skewed towards higher-income households. Nevertheless, this is a sea change in the composition of America’s total wealth, which was dominated for years (even after the bursting of the housing bubble in 2008) by real estate.”⁵

• Retirement plans help grow household wealth. Years ago, a family’s wealth was largely tied to its home and, perhaps, a pension that would be paid by a company after retirement. Today, an increasing share of household wealth is in 401(k)s, IRAs, and brokerage accounts. Even people who have never thought of buying an individual stock may own thousands of companies through their workplace retirement plans. “In 2022, retirement assets and accrued Social Security benefits made up about 40 percent of [household] wealth,” reported the CBO.⁴

• Diversification matters more than ever. With stocks comprising a bigger share of household wealth, managing risk is essential. One of the best ways to do that is through diversification, which means owning different types of investments that respond differently to changing market conditions. The idea is that one asset may increase in value when another is losing value. While diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against loss, it plays an important role in long-term investment strategies.⁶

Last week, the Standard & Poor’s 500 and Nasdaq Composite Indexes finished higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost ground, largely due to the collapse of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, according to Teresa Rivas of Barron’s.^7,8 Yields on mid- and longer-term U.S. Treasuries moved higher over the week.⁹

Data as of 7/10/26	1-Week	YTD	1-Year	3-Year	5-Year	10-Year
Standard & Poor’s 500 Index	1.2%	10.7%	20.6%	19.8%	11.6%	13.5%
Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index	-1.4	11.3	22.9	16.1	5.7	7.1
10-year Treasury Note (yield only)	4.6	N/A	4.4	4.0	1.4	1.4
S&P GSCI Gold Index	0.6	-4.4	23.5	28.9	18.1	11.8
Bloomberg Commodity Index	3.1	15.6	23.0	7.5	6.2	4.0

S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, S&P GSCI Gold Index, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends. The three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods. 

Sources: Yahoo! Finance; MarketWatch; djindexes.com; U.S. Treasury.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.

THE WORLD CUP HAS PRODUCED SOME EYE-POPPING NUMBERS, and we’re not talking about the scoreboard.For example:

$713,000. The World Cup trophy is gilded with almost 11 pounds of 18-karat gold. In April of this year, the value of the gold would have been roughly $713,000, reported Phil Haunhorst via Yahoo Finance. The champions receive a gold-plated replica, while the original trophy stays with FIFA, which is the international governing body for soccer.¹⁰

6 million. That’s how manyspectators have packed into stadiums throughout the United States, Canada, and Mexico to watch the beautiful game, according to FIFA.¹¹

$12.5 million. The country of every team playing in the tournament receives $12.5 million in qualification and preparation money, reported Maggie MacKenzie of Sports Illustrated.¹²

$16 million. The U.S. men’s national team won $16 million for making it to the round of 16. Since the U.S. men’s and women’s teams split all World Cup winnings, “The prize money will be split evenly between the 26 men on the U.S. roster and the 26 women who make next year’s U.S. roster for the 2027 Women’s World Cup, should the Americans qualify,” reported Jeff Kassouf of ESPN.¹³

33 million. Last week, more than 33 million viewers tuned in to watch the U.S. men’s national team play Belgium, making it the “most-watched soccer telecast in U.S. history,” reported Michael Schneider of Variety.¹⁴

$50 million. The prize for the team that lifts the World Cup trophy is $50 million.¹² The winnings don’t go to the players, although they receive a share. The award goes to the winning nation’s soccer federation, which is the sport’s governing body in the country.¹⁵

$13 billion. This is the amount of revenue that “FIFA expects to have generated across the four-year cycle ending with this World Cup,” reported Brett Knight of Forbes. “Of that total, almost $9 billion would be from 2026, including $3.9 billion from broadcasting rights and more than $3 billion in hospitality rights and ticket sales, according to projections in the organization’s 2024 annual report.”¹⁶

The World Cup offers some unforgettable moments. It also offers some pretty impressive trivia.

WEEKLY FOCUS – THINK ABOUT IT

“We didn’t underestimate them, but they were a lot better than we thought.”¹⁷

 — Bobby Robson, Former professional soccer coach and player

* These views are those of Carson Coaching, not the presenting Representative, the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, or Registered Investment Advisor, and should not be construed as investment advice.

* This newsletter was prepared by Carson Coaching. Carson Coaching is not affiliated with the named firm or broker/dealer.

* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.  However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.

* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.

* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.

* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.

* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.

* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.

* Gold represents the 3:00 p.m. (London time) gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association and is expressed in U.S. Dollars per fine troy ounce. The source for gold data is Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GOLDPMGBD228NLBM.

* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.

* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.

* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.

* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.

* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.

* The risk of loss in trading commodities and futures can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The high degree of leverage is often obtainable in commodity trading and can work against you as well as for you. The use of leverage can lead to large losses as well as gains.

* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.

* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.

* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.

* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.

* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.

* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.

* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.

Sources:

1 https://medium.com/fbdevclagos/tech-timeline-30-years-and-beyond-1987-2017-8beef66255dc

2 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Digital_camera

3 https://www.geotab.com/blog/gps-satellites/

4 https://www.cbo.gov/publication/60807

5 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-07-10/the-stock-market-and-a-phenomena-of-our-lifetimes? or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/07-13-26-Bloomberg-The-Stock-Market-And%20-%205.pdf

6 https://www.investopedia.com/investing/importance-diversification/

7 https://www.barrons.com/market-data?mod=BOL_TOPNAV or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/07-13-26-Barrons-DJIA-S&P-Nasdaq%20-%207.pdf

8 https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-magnificent-seven-9a8da693?refsec=the-trader&mod=topics_the-trader or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/07-13-26-Barrons-The-Stock-Market-Cant-Afford%20-%208.pdf

9 https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026

10 https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/commodities/articles/much-gold-hiding-world-cup-111438017.html

11 https://inside.fifa.com/organisation/media-releases/packed-stadiums-record-digital-reach-world-cup-2026-numbers-unprecedented-scale

12 https://www.si.com/onsi/athlete-lifestyle/2026-fifa-world-cup-prize-money-full-payout-breakdown-every-team

13 https://www.espn.com/soccer/story/_/id/49301582/us-men-women-get-equal-split-16m-world-cup-prize

14 https://variety.com/2026/tv/news/u-s-world-cup-loss-ratings-most-watched-soccer-telecast-1236806132/

15 https://www.si.com/soccer/how-much-do-world-cup-soccer-players-get-paid-usmnt-england-bonuses-explained

16 https://www.forbes.com/sites/brettknight/2026/07/01/the-numbers-behind-the-2026-world-cup/ or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/07-13-26-Forbes-The-Numbers-Behind%20-%2016.pdf

17 https://www.si.com/soccer/50-inspiring-soccer-quotes