Blog
The Markets
Uncertainty abounds.
Investors were skittish last week. Share prices jolted higher and lower amid concerns about artificial intelligence (AI) data center spending, upcoming Federal Reserve rate decisions, and the strength of consumer spending, reported Phil Serafino and Natalia Kniazhevich of Bloomberg.1 These issues will affect the future performance of companies, and investors are trying to anticipate what may be ahead.
In the third quarter, companies were profitable and sales were strong
Overall, U.S. companies performed well in the third quarter of 2025. So far, 95 percent of companies in the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index have reported on performance over the period. Almost three-fourths performed better than analysts expected. Overall, company profits were up 13.4 percent for the quarter, reported John Butters of FactSet.2
Sales (a.k.a. revenue) have been strong, as well. In the third quarter, S&P 500 companies had the highest combined sales growth in three years (+8.4 percent). “Three sectors are reporting (or have reported) double-digit revenue growth for the quarter: Information Technology, Health Care, and Communication Services,” reported Butters.2
Share prices reflect recent performance and investors’ expectations
While strong company performance is reassuring, some analysts and asset managers believe stock prices, overall, are too high. For instance, Bank of America’s November survey of global money managers found that most respondents thought stocks were overvalued, reported Brett Arends of MarketWatch via Morningstar.3
Not everyone agrees. Last week, Dan Kemp of Morningstar reported, “Strong revenue growth and unusually high profit margins…alongside the US stock market’s growing concentration in companies benefiting from the rapid growth in AI have led Morningstar’s analysts to increase their estimates of the market’s fair value. As a result, the average US company under Morningstar’s coverage now appears undervalued…”4
Expect volatility to continue
While Morningstar analysts think valuations are attractive, they expect markets to remain volatile. The U.S. stock market’s “concentration in tech stocks – companies dependent on long term future growth – brings with it increased risk of lurching price movements driven by short-term changes in investor sentiment.”4
There were a lot of ups and downs last week. Major U.S. stock indices ended the week lower.5 In contrast, U.S. Treasuries rallied, with yields on most maturities falling.6
Data as of 11/21/25 | 1-Week | YTD | 1-Year | 3-Year | 5-Year | 10-Year |
| Standard & Poor’s 500 Index | -2.0% | 12.3% | 10.6% | 18.7% | 13.0% | 12.2% |
| Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index | -3.3 | 21.0 | 19.9 | 12.8 | 5.1 | 4.9 |
| 10-year Treasury Note (yield only) | 4.1 | N/A | 4.4 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 2.3 |
| Gold (per ounce) | 0.0 | 56.0 | 52.8 | 32.5 | 17.2 | 14.3 |
| Bloomberg Commodity Index | -1.5 | 8.9 | 8.7 | -2.3 | 7.7 | 2.8 |
S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance; MarketWatch; djindexes.com; U.S. Treasury; London Bullion Market Association.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.
‘TIS THE SEASON! The holiday shopping season gets underway this week, and expectations are high. The National Retail Federation (NRF) looks at a bunch of economic factors – consumer spending, disposable personal income, employment, wages, inflation, and monthly retail sales – to estimate how much people will spend over the winter holidays. This year, the forecast suggests sales will top $1 trillion.7
“American consumers may be cautious in sentiment yet remain fundamentally strong and continue to drive U.S. economic activity…We remain bullish about the holiday shopping season and expect that consumers will continue to seek savings in nonessential categories to be able to spend on gifts for loved ones,” explained NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay.7
The gift shift
The Currency reported on a recent survey, called the Going Rate, that explored how Americans think about gift giving and spending. When responses were tallied, it found that:8
| 86 percent | Believe gifts can be meaningful without being expensive |
| 75 percent | Expect gifts will be more expensive this year because of tariffs and inflation. |
| 60 percent | Think gift culture has gotten “out of hand”. |
| 58 percent | Have a gift budget. |
| 56 percent | Buy gifts throughout the year to spread out the cost. |
| 48 percent | Experience gift fatigue. |
| 33 percent | Are adopting no-gift policies. |
Fifty-five percent of millennials, 50 percent of Gen Z, and 28 percent of baby boomers would rather give the gift of time and shared experience. They believe their presence is the real gift. Respondents who plan to give gifts expect to spend about $64 per person, on average.8
WEEKLY FOCUS – THINK ABOUT IT
“Honey, do you honestly think I would check thousands of tiny little lights if I wasn’t sure the extension cord was plugged in?”9
– Clark Griswold, National Lampoon’s Christmas Vacation
* These views are those of Carson Coaching, not the presenting Representative, the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, or Registered Investment Advisor, and should not be construed as investment advice.
* This newsletter was prepared by Carson Coaching. Carson Coaching is not affiliated with the named firm or broker/dealer.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the 3:00 p.m. (London time) gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association and is expressed in U.S. Dollars per fine troy ounce. The source for gold data is Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GOLDPMGBD228NLBM.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.
* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.
* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* The risk of loss in trading commodities and futures can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The high degree of leverage is often obtainable in commodity trading and can work against you as well as for you. The use of leverage can lead to large losses as well as gains.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.
* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. * Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
Sources:
1 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-11-21/investors-angst-goes-far-beyond-ai-and-nvidia? or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/11-24-25-Bloomberg-Investors-Angst%20-%201.pdf
2https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_112125.pdf or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/11-24-25-Factset-Earnings-Insight%20-%202.pdf
5 https://www.barrons.com/market-data?mod=BOL_TOPNAV or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/11-24-25-Barrons-DJIA-S&P-Nasdaq%20-%205.pdf
8 https://www.empower.com/the-currency/money/going-rate-research
9 https://www.today.com/life/holidays/christmas-vacation-quotes-rcna48344
The Markets
It was another turbulent week.
Investors cheered the end of the shutdown, pondered strong third-quarter earnings, and questioned the artificial intelligence (AI) spending spree. Some reduced their exposure to risky assets, while others bought the dip.1,2,3 Here are a few of the factors that influenced markets last week.
Doubts about rates. The shutdown ended, but the White House said the official inflation and employment reports for October may never be released. That makes it tough for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to lower rates. “The central bank taps federal data releases – among others – as officials mull the appropriate timings to raise and lower interest rates,” reported AFP News via Barron’s.4
The probability that the Fed will lower rates in December fell to 50 percent last week from 72 percent the week before, reported Phil Serafino, Joel Leon, and Jess Menton of Bloomberg.5
A loss of momentum. Momentum investing is buying stocks that are rising rapidly.6 For example, artificial intelligence (AI) stocks have been big winners, pushing markets to record highs. However, the lower likelihood of a rate cut had investors reassessing their value.5
“The promise of lower interest rates had been a reason why many investors were willing to disregard the high valuation readings on the momentum stocks,” said a source cited by Bloomberg.5
Unhappy consumers. In November, consumer confidence hit a near-record low – a reading of 50.3 on the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index.7 The Index’s highest reading was 111.3 in February 2000 and its lowest was 50 in June 2022.8 Normal for the Index is 100, reflecting the first quarter of 1966.9
Some worry that declining sentiment could hurt holiday sales. However, the chief economist of the National Retail Federation told Sabrina Escobar of Barron’s, “While sentiment does matter, over the past few years, we’ve seen consumers spend irrespective of how they’re feeling about things…I personally like to think about the consumer as being sentimentally weak but fundamentally sound.”10
The Nasdaq Composite Index finished the week lower, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average eked out gains.11 Yields on most maturities of U.S. Treasuries moved higher over the week.12
Data as of 11/14/25 | 1-Week | YTD | 1-Year | 3-Year | 5-Year | 10-Year |
| Standard & Poor’s 500 Index | 0.1% | 14.5% | 13.2% | 19.4% | 13.2% | 12.6% |
| Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index | 1.2 | 25.1 | 23.7 | 13.7 | 5.9 | 5.5 |
| 10-year Treasury Note (yield only) | 4.2 | N/A | 4.4 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 2.3 |
| Gold (per ounce) | 1.9 | 55.9 | 58.6 | 32.0 | 16.6 | 14.1 |
| Bloomberg Commodity Index | 1.7 | 10.5 | 13.7 | -2.2 | 8.1 | 2.8 |
S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance; MarketWatch; djindexes.com; U.S. Treasury; London Bullion Market Association.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.
The United States doesn’t make cents anymore. Last week, the U.S. Mint stamped its last set of pennies. It was a common-sense change that some say is long overdue. The cost to produce pennies has increased sharply, rising from 1.42 cents to 3.69 cents per penny. Ending production has the potential to save taxpayers $56 million dollars a year.13
The change doesn’t mean the penny will disappear. There are more than 300 billion in circulation14 – although they aren’t spent often. In fact, a dearth of pennies has created problems for retail stores. “In early November, six national retailers reported that more than 1,000 of their locations were without pennies,” reported Austen Jensen on the Retail Industry Leaders Association (RILA) blog.15
In a RILA survey of 25 retail chains, “Two-thirds of respondents said they are rounding transactions to the benefit of consumers when pennies are unavailable — a practice that, while fair to shoppers, is costing businesses millions of dollars as small amounts add up across thousands of daily cash transactions,” reported Jensen.15
Cash is #3 in the hierarchy of spending
There are some good reasons to pay for goods with cash. For example, spending physical money can make it easier to control spending and stick to a budget. Cash also offers greater privacy. However, many consumers prefer the convenience of credit and debit cards, according to The Federal Reserve’s Diary of Consumer Payment Choice study.16
“Households earning less than $25,000 per year and adults 55 and older relied more on cash than other cohorts. In contrast, adults aged 18 to 24 were more likely to pay with a mobile phone, using their phones for 45 [percent] of all payments.”16
WEEKLY FOCUS – THINK ABOUT IT
“Jacob thought about going home. He still had some American change, which he kept in an empty matchbox in his sock drawer, and one night, after he had finished his pancakes and jam, he took the coins out, spread them on the kitchen table, and admired the burnt sienna patina of one of the pennies, which in the candlelight was iridescent with violet and green where people’s touch had salted it.”17
– Caleb Crain, author of Necessary Errors
* These views are those of Carson Coaching, not the presenting Representative, the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, or Registered Investment Advisor, and should not be construed as investment advice.
* This newsletter was prepared by Carson Coaching. Carson Coaching is not affiliated with the named firm or broker/dealer.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the 3:00 p.m. (London time) gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association and is expressed in U.S. Dollars per fine troy ounce. The source for gold data is Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GOLDPMGBD228NLBM.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.
* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.
* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* The risk of loss in trading commodities and futures can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The high degree of leverage is often obtainable in commodity trading and can work against you as well as for you. The use of leverage can lead to large losses as well as gains.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.
* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. * Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
Sources:
1 https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/government-shutdown-nears-end-lifting-investors-spiritsand-stocks-f0f6ac07? or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/11-17-25-WSJ-Gevernment-Shutdown-Nears-End%20-%201.pdf
2 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-10/stock-selloff-leaves-earnings-growth-as-strongest-bull-pillar or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/11-17-25-Bloomberg-Stock-Selloff-Leaves%20-%202.pdf
3 https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-today-111425?mod=hp_LEDE_C_1 or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/11-17-25-Barrons-Nasdaq-Marks-Biggest%203.pdf
4 https://www.barrons.com/news/october-inflation-jobs-data-may-never-be-released-white-house-8baa8d95? or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/11-17-25-Barrons-October-Inflation-%204.pdf
5 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-11-14/momentum-stocks-are-going-in-reverse-as-rate-cut-outlook-dims or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/11-17-25-Bloomberg-Momentum-Stocks%20-%205.pdf
6 https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/momentum.asp
7 https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu
8 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UMCSENT
9 https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/fetchdoc.php?docid=75432
10 https://www.barrons.com/articles/consumer-sentiment-spending-retail-economy-e6199867 or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/11-17-25-Barrons-Consumer-Sentiment-Falls%20-10.pdf
11 https://www.barrons.com/market-data?mod=BOL_TOPNAV or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/11-17-25-Barrons-DJIA-S&P-Nasdaq%20-%2011.pdf
13 https://www.usmint.gov/news/media-kit/penny#accordion-021891a14e-item-a72653be9c
15 https://www.rila.org/blog/2025/11/retailers-face-penny-shortages-call-for-federal-ac
The Markets
There were bearish undercurrents in the bullish sea.
While there are many reasons to be optimistic about the long-term prospects for U.S. stocks, investor concerns about artificial intelligence (AI) spending and the possibility of a market correction roiled markets last week.
“All eyes were on the parade of earnings reports from the technology behemoths this past week. But what grabbed the markets’ attention were the implications of their massive capital investments in artificial intelligence on their balance sheets and cash-flow statements,” reported Randall W. Forsyth of Barron’s.1
Investors wondered whether and when the enormous amounts of money companies are committing to AI data centers will generate a return, according to John Miley of Kiplinger’s. In addition, there were questions about whether these investments are economically sustainable.2
“To meet the expected demand for data centers, it will require $500 billion in annual global capex spending on new data centers…AI companies will have to find $2 trillion in new yearly revenue by 2030 to arrive at an economically sustainable model,” reported Miley.2
Investor caution was heightened when the chief financial officer of one large AI research and deployment company suggested the government “backstop the guarantee that allows the financing [for AI data centers] to happen,” reported Bloomberg.3
Another sustainability issue is energy usage. AI data centers consume a lot of power. Increasing demand is pushing energy prices higher, and they could go even higher as utilities upgrade power grids to meet new energy demands, reported Pew Research.4
“It seems like we have finally reached the point of maximum optimism around artificial intelligence,” commented a source cited by Carmen Reinicke, Alexandra Semenove, and James Crombie of Bloomberg.3
While that may prove true, there are many reasons to remain enthusiastic about AI. Advancements in the field have the potential to deliver gains in automation, decision-making, efficiency, and innovation that could reduce costs across diverse industries and generate immense wealth. Already, excitement about AI has “added trillions of dollars to the equity market’s value,” reported Phil Serafino, Carmen Reinicke, and James Crombie of Bloomberg.3
AI spending was not the only issue that gave investors pause last week. Other concerns included consumer sentiment hitting a three-year low and the government shutdown having a negative effect on the U.S. economy, reported Jeff Cox of CNBC.5
Major U.S. stock indexes gained a bit on Friday but finished the week lower.6 In addition, yields on most maturities of U.S. Treasuries moved lower over the week.7
Data as of 11/7/25 | 1-Week | YTD | 1-Year | 3-Year | 5-Year | 10-Year |
| Standard & Poor’s 500 Index | -1.6% | 14.4% | 12.7% | 20.9% | 13.6% | 12.5% |
| Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index | -1.1 | 23.7 | 18.3 | 15.4 | 6.1 | 5.2 |
| 10-year Treasury Note (yield only) | 4.1 | N/A | 4.3 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 2.3 |
| Gold (per ounce) | -0.4 | 53.0 | 48.4 | 33.5 | 16.4 | 13.9 |
| Bloomberg Commodity Index | 0.0 | 8.7 | 8.0 | -3.2 | 8.1 | 2.5 |
S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance; MarketWatch; djindexes.com; U.S. Treasury; London Bullion Market Association.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.
IS AI TAKING AMERICANS’ JOBS? Americans won’t be receiving any employment data from the government until the shutdown ends. However, some private sector companies stepped in to share the employment information they gathered in October. Overall, the picture was not rosy. Layoffs were abundant – but AI didn’t appear to be the primary culprit.8
Employers in the United States eliminated more than 150,000 jobs in October – the highest number for the month since 2003, according to data compiled by a large outplacement firm. Year-to-date, more than one million jobs have been eliminated by employers. That’s a significant rise from the same period during the previous year.8
For 2025, through October, the top three reasons cited for company layoffs were Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) actions, market and economic conditions, and corporate restructuring. In October, the top three reasons were cost-cutting, AI, and market and economic conditions.9
| October 2025 | 2025 (through October) | |
| DOGE actions | – | 293,753 |
| Cost-cutting | 50,437 | 77,285 |
| Artificial intelligence (AI) | 31,039 | 48,414 |
| Market/economic conditions | 21,104 | 229,331 |
| Business closed | 16,739 | 161,391 |
| Federal government layoffs/shutdown | 8,983 | 8,983 |
| Restructuring | 7,588 | 108,038 |
“Some industries are correcting after the hiring boom of the pandemic, but this comes as AI adoption, softening consumer and corporate spending, and rising costs drive belt-tightening and hiring freezes. Those laid off now are finding it harder to quickly secure new roles, which could further loosen the labor market,” reported the Chief Revenue Officer of the outplacement firm.8
While the number of layoffs was quite large in October, that’s just one part of the employment picture. A large payroll firm’s National Employment Report found that private-sector employers added 42,000 jobs last month. In other words, enough new jobs were created to offset October layoffs. The new positions were primarily in the areas of education and health services, and trade, transportation and utilities.10
WEEKLY FOCUS – THINK ABOUT IT
“It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts.”11 – Sir Arthur Conan Doyle, author of the canon of Sherlock Holmes
* These views are those of Carson Coaching, not the presenting Representative, the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, or Registered Investment Advisor, and should not be construed as investment advice.
* This newsletter was prepared by Carson Coaching. Carson Coaching is not affiliated with the named firm or broker/dealer.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the 3:00 p.m. (London time) gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association and is expressed in U.S. Dollars per fine troy ounce. The source for gold data is Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GOLDPMGBD228NLBM.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.
* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.
* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* The risk of loss in trading commodities and futures can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The high degree of leverage is often obtainable in commodity trading and can work against you as well as for you. The use of leverage can lead to large losses as well as gains.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.
* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
Sources:
1 https://www.barrons.com/articles/meta-stock-took-a-dive-its-the-poster-child-for-the-debate-over-ai-spending-a4fe924e?refsec=up-and-down-wall-street&mod=topics_up-and-down-wall-street or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/11-10-25-Barrons-Meta-Shock-Took-A-Dive-1.pdf
2 https://www.kiplinger.com/business/worried-about-an-ai-bubble-what-you-need-to-know
3 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-11-07/ai-skepticism-is-gaining-ground-with-stock-credit-investors? or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/11-10-25-Bloomberg-AI-Skepticism-Is-Gaining-Ground-3.pdf
5 https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/07/consumer-sentiment-shutdown.html
6 https://www.barrons.com/market-data?mod=BOL_TOPNAV or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/11-10-25-Barrons-DJIA-SP-NASDAQ-6.pdf
8 https://www.challengergray.com/blog/october-challenger-report-153074-job-cuts-on-cost-cutting-ai/
9 https://www.challengergray.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/Challenger-Report-October-2025.pdf
10 https://adpemploymentreport.com
11 https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/92128-it-is-a-capital-mistake-to-theorize-before-one-has
The Markets
Like walking on cobblestones…
If you’ve ever walked down a road paved with cobblestones, you know the uneven surface can be challenging. Today, financial markets are paved with a variety of challenges and concerns. A recent survey from Charles Schwab found that its clients remain bullish; however, they have concerns about how the political landscape, market valuations, and geopolitical and macroeconomic issues will affect markets over the next three months. They also are considering the possibility of stagflation.1 (Stagflation is a rare confluence of slow economic growth, high inflation, and high unemployment.)2
Last week, markets were volatile. Rising and falling in response to a variety of different events, including:
U.S.- China trade negotiations. President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping met last week and “Both sides agreed to delay restrictions that formed the center of an escalating tit-for-tat in recent weeks. That de-escalation…took a worst-case scenario off the table for markets, though much of what was agreed upon still has to be worked out in detail,” reported Reshma Kapadia of Barron’s.3
A cautionary statement from the Federal Reserve (Fed). Investors were not surprised when the Fed lowered the federal funds rate last week. However, the market wobbled when Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that a December rate cut was not a certainty, reported Joe Weisenthal of Bloomberg.4 In the post-meeting statement, Chair Powell said:
“Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. GDP rose at a 1.6 percent pace in the first half of the year, down from 2.4 percent last year…In the near term, risks to inflation are tilted to the upside and risks to employment to the downside – a challenging situation. There is no risk-free path for policy as we navigate this tension between our employment and inflation goals.”5
Third quarter company performance. It’s earnings season, the time when companies tell investors how profitable they were in the previous quarter. In general, companies performed well. “In fact, this quarter marks the 6th consecutive quarter that the S&P 500 is reporting a net profit margin above the 5-year average (12.1%),” reported John Butters of FactSet.6
The caveat is that many stock prices are at levels that require excellent performance. As a result, companies with earnings that were not perfect saw their share prices drop “What is more, companies aren’t getting rewarded as much for good news…FactSet said that the average price increase following a positive earnings surprise so far this quarter is just 0.3%, compared with the five-year average of 0.9%,” reported Paul La Monica of Barron’s. 7
Just as the right footwear can make walking on cobblestones easier, having a well-allocated and diversified portfolio can make navigating uncertain markets less stressful. Diversification won’t prevent losses, but it can help investors manage portfolio risk.
Amid significant volatility, major U.S. stock indexes moved higher over the week.8 Broadly speaking, U.S. Treasuries gained value as yields on many maturities ended the week lower than they started it.9
Data as of 10/31/25 | 1-Week | YTD | 1-Year | 3-Year | 5-Year | 10-Year |
| Standard & Poor’s 500 Index | 0.7% | 16.3% | 19.9% | 20.9% | 15.6% | 12.5% |
| Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index | 0.0 | 25.0 | 21.3 | 17.0 | 8.0 | 5.1 |
| 10-year Treasury Note (yield only) | 4.1 | N/A | 4.3 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 2.2 |
| Gold (per ounce) | -2.3 | 53.7 | 46.7 | 34.8 | 16.2 | 13.5 |
| Bloomberg Commodity Index | -0.1 | 8.7 | 9.4 | -1.8 | 8.3 | 2.2 |
S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance; MarketWatch; djindexes.com; U.S. Treasury; London Bullion Market Association.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.
WHAT IS AI GOOD FOR? Americans have mixed feelings about artificial intelligence (AI). In September, Brian Kennedy, Eileen Yam, Emma Kikuchi, Isabelle Pula, and Javier Fuentes of Pew Research reported on a September 2025 survey that asked about the risks and benefits of AI for society. The survey found:10
- 50 percent of respondents were more concerned than excited about AI being used more frequently in daily life,
- 38 percent were both concerned and excited,
- 10 percent were more excited than concerned, and
- 2 percent did not respond to the question.
Regardless, many Americans are using AI to make informed decisions when buying goods and services. For example, Americans have been turning to AI for help when:
Negotiating a better price for a car. Younger generations are using AI to identify the best times to buy cars (with a focus on price fluctuations, deals, or incentives), reported Eileen Falkenberg-Hull of Newsweek.11 They’re also using AI to review contracts and negotiate better deals, according to The Economist.12
Identifying the best value on a wine menu. Unless you are very knowledgeable about a wide range of wines, it can be challenging to know which bottle on arestaurant menu is well-priced. Now, you can upload a photo of the menu’s wine list and ask AI.12
Understanding plumbing and household repair issues. AI may be able to diagnose a problem and suggest a low-cost solution or negotiate a better price with the plumber. A recent survey found that “homeowners who followed AI’s guidance…reported an average 47% reduction in repair or maintenance costs and 29% felt less stressed about managing home repairs,” reported Anna Baluch on Realtor.com. She emphasized that it is important to double-check the advice offered by AI before taking action.13
“As AI goes mainstream, it will remove one of the most enduring distortions in modern capitalism: the information advantages that sellers, service providers and intermediaries enjoy over consumers. When everyone has a genius in their pocket, they will be less vulnerable to mis-selling—benefiting them and improving overall economic efficiency. The ‘rip-off economy’, in which firms profit from opacity, confusion or inertia, is meeting its match,” reported The Economist.12
WEEKLY FOCUS – THINK ABOUT IT
“…an adversarial mindset not only prevents us from understanding and responding to the other party, but also makes us feel like we’ve lost when we don’t get our way.”14 –Daniel Goleman, Psychologist and author
* These views are those of Carson Coaching, not the presenting Representative, the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, or Registered Investment Advisor, and should not be construed as investment advice.
* This newsletter was prepared by Carson Coaching. Carson Coaching is not affiliated with the named firm or broker/dealer.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the 3:00 p.m. (London time) gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association and is expressed in U.S. Dollars per fine troy ounce. The source for gold data is Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GOLDPMGBD228NLBM.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.
* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.
* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* The risk of loss in trading commodities and futures can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The high degree of leverage is often obtainable in commodity trading and can work against you as well as for you. The use of leverage can lead to large losses as well as gains.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.
* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
Sources:
2 https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/smart-money/stagflation
3 https://www.barrons.com/articles/xi-trump-china-us-cut-tariffs-chips-pause-restrictions-04bd3a99 or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/11-03-25-Barrons-XI-Trump-De-Escalate-Tensions-3.pdf
4 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-10-29/some-thoughts-on-today-s-fed-decision or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/11-03-25-Bloomberg-Some-Thoughts-On-Todays-4.pdf
5 https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20251029.pdf
7 https://www.barrons.com/articles/earnings-stocks-price-reactions-3a5432e6?mod=hp_LEDE_C_1 or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/11-03-25-Barrons-Wall-Street-Is-Punishing-Stocks-7.pdf
8 https://www.barrons.com/market-data?mod=BOL_TOPNAV or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/11-03-25-Barrons-DJIA-SP-NASDAQ-8.pdf
11 https://www.newsweek.com/nw-ai/gen-z-using-artificial-intelligence-ai-car-buying-timing-2047326
12 https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/10/27/the-end-of-the-rip-off-economy or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/11-03-25-The-Economist-The-End-Of-The-Rip-Off-12.pdf
13 https://www.realtor.com/advice/home-improvement/homeowners-cut-repair-costs-using-ai/