The Markets

Are financial markets too complacent?

In Aesop’s fable, The Boy Who Cried Wolf, a young shepherd repeatedly raises a false alarm. Eventually, the people in his village ignore his warnings. When a wolf appears, the villagers pay no attention to the boy’s cries, confident that “nothing ever happens”.¹

Some pundits fear investors have become similarly complacent. “Wall Street’s tolerance for shock is becoming heroic,” wrote Isabelle Lee and Denitsa Tsekova of Bloomberg. “First came the inflation angst, then the tariff crash, then the war in the Middle East. At this point, it’s hard to imagine what could still rattle the investor class.”²

Since April’s tariff-induced downturn, investors have pushed U.S. stocks steadily higher, focusing on positive news – resilient U.S. economic data, solid corporate earnings growth, and the potential of artificial intelligence, reported Paul R. LaMonica of Barron’s.³

Despite tariff uncertainty, rising deficit and debt levels, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts, the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 and Nasdaq Composite Indexes closed at record highs last Thursday. In addition, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow) was nearing its first new high since December 2024, reported Connor Smith of Barron’s.⁴

Then, on Friday, investor confidence hiccupped.

“Record highs and down weeks don’t typically go together, but the declines themselves are relatively minuscule, especially given the tariff headlines generated during the week—the possibility of 50 [percent] levies on Brazil and 35 [percent] on Canada, among others, if negotiations don’t go well—and continued attacks on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. The S&P 500, after all, is still up 26 [percent] from its April low and has gained 6.4 [percent] this year,” reported Jacob Sonenshine of Barron’s.⁵

By the end of the week, the S&P 500 and Dow were lower, while the Nasdaq eked out a gain.⁶  Yields on longer maturities of U.S. Treasuries ended higher.7

Data as of 7/11/25	1-Week	YTD	1-Year	3-Year	5-Year	10-Year
Standard & Poor’s 500 Index	-0.3%	6.4%	12.1%	17.5%	14.7%	11.5%
Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index	-0.2	15.6	10.8	11.4	6.5	3.7
10-year Treasury Note (yield only)	4.4	N/A	4.2	3.0	0.6	2.4
Gold (per ounce)	0.6	28.4	39.1	24.4	13.2	11.3
Bloomberg Commodity Index	0.4	5.1	3.1	-3.7	9.3	0.4

S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods. 

Sources: Yahoo! Finance; MarketWatch; djindexes.com; U.S. Treasury; London Bullion Market Association.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.

THE BIG BEAUTIFUL BILL IS NOW THE LAW OF THE LAND. President Trump signed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) into law on the Fourth of July. The $3.8 trillion tax and spending package is a wide-ranging piece of legislation. The OBBBA’s “extraordinary breadth and ambition position it as one of the most consequential pieces of legislation in recent congressional history,” wrote Holland & Knight law.⁸

The legislation extended the tax changes from 2017’s Tax Cuts and Jobs Act that would have expired later this year. Here is a brief review of some of the new provisions:

• A higher standard deduction. Anyone who doesn’t itemize will benefit from a change in the standard deduction. In 2025, the standard deduction will increase by $750 for single tax filers (from $15,000 to $15,750) and by $1,500 for those who file jointly (from $30,000 to $31,500), according to Michael Townsend of Schwab.⁹

• A larger child tax credit: Families with children may benefit from a $200 increase in the child tax credit. The credit is reduced and phased out at higher income levels ($200,000 of modified adjusted gross income (MAGI) for single tax filers and $400,000 for those who file jointly), reported Kamaron McNair of CNBC.¹⁰

• A temporary bonus for seniors: From 2025 through 2028, some Americans who are age 65 or older will benefit from a $6,000 special deduction. To qualify, they must have modified adjusted gross income of less than $75,000 for single tax filers or $150,000 for those who file jointly.⁹

• A temporary increase in state and local tax (SALT) deduction caps. The cap for SALT tax deductions, which include property taxes, will be $40,000 in 2025. The amount will increase one percent a year for four years before dropping back to $10,000 in 2030.⁹

• New caps on student loan amounts. The law limits the amounts students and parents can borrow from the government to pay for education. Beginning in 2026, graduate students can borrow $20,500 per year with a lifetime limit of $100,000 ($200,000 if pursuing a professional degree). The student lifetime borrowing limit for federal student loans will be $257,500.¹¹

• Elimination of green-energy tax credits. If you’ve been thinking about making energy-efficient home improvements or purchasing an electric vehicle, now is the time. These tax credits will be eliminated at the end of 2025.¹¹

• Temporary tax relief on tips and overtime. From 2025 to 2028, workers will be able to deduct up to $25,000 in tips and up to $12,500 in overtime pay.¹¹

There are many other provisions – savings accounts for newborns, auto loan interest deduction, higher estate tax exemptions, changes to health savings account eligibility – that may affect your financial plans. If you would like to talk about these changes, please get in touch.

WEEKLY FOCUS – THINK ABOUT IT

“The $3.4 trillion price tag for the OBBBA will drive the national debt to unprecedented levels, but that figure does not include associated interest costs from the higher level of borrowing needed to foot the bill. Interest costs on the legislation will add approximately $700 billion to federal deficits over the next 10 years, bringing the total cost of the legislation to $4.1 trillion.”¹²

― Peter G. Peterson Foundation

* These views are those of Carson Coaching, not the presenting Representative, the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, or Registered Investment Advisor, and should not be construed as investment advice.

* This newsletter was prepared by Carson Coaching. Carson Coaching is not affiliated with the named firm or broker/dealer.

* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.  However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.

* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.

* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.

* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.

* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.

* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.

* Gold represents the 3:00 p.m. (London time) gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association and is expressed in U.S. Dollars per fine troy ounce. The source for gold data is Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GOLDPMGBD228NLBM.

* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.

* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.

* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.

* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.

* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.

* The risk of loss in trading commodities and futures can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The high degree of leverage is often obtainable in commodity trading and can work against you as well as for you. The use of leverage can lead to large losses as well as gains.

* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.

* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.

* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.

* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.

* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.

* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.

* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.

Sources:

1 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Boy_Who_Cried_Wolf

2 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-11/battle-hardened-wall-street-bulls-are-proving-very-hard-to-scare or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/07-14-25-Bloomberg-Battle-Harderned-Wall-Street%20-%202.pdf

3 https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-record-goldilocks-risks-25610b9f?refsec=markets&mod=topics_markets or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/07-14-25-Barrons-Stocks-Are-Hitting-Records%20-%203.pdf

4 https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-today-071025 or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/07-14-25-Barrons-Dow-Falls-Nearly-280-Points%20-%204.pdf

5 https://www.barrons.com/articles/second-quarter-earnings-s-p-500-record-highs-ed489727?refsec=the-trader&mod=topics_the-trader or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/07-14-25-Barrons-How-Second-Quarter-Earnings%20-%205.pdf

6 https://www.barrons.com/market-data?mod=BOL_TOPNAV or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/07-14-25-Barrons-DJIA-S&P-Nasdaq%20-%206.pdf

7 https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025

8 https://www.hklaw.com/en/insights/publications/2025/07/the-one-big-beautiful-bill-act-a-comprehensive-analysis

9 https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/tax-bill-moves-on-to-senate-whats-next

10 https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/09/trump-spending-bill-child-tax-credit.html

11 https://www.hklaw.com/-/media/files/insights/publications/2025/07/onebigbeautifulbillcomprehensiveanalysis.pdf?rev=02a78d4e65d8461bbb7b4e3c87ceab42&hash=A0C00C098DA5EF8A28DC7108B90F9D45

12 https://www.pgpf.org/article/the-one-big-beautiful-bill-act-is-the-most-expensive-reconciliation-package-in-recent-history/

The Markets

Like riders on a giga coaster, investors experienced fear and exhilaration during the second quarter of 2025.

From April through June, investors rode markets up and down, banking through twists of news and events that had market moving potential. They swooped through the uncertain impact of tariffs on economic growth and inflation; the implications of a U.S. Treasury downgrade; the effects of fiscal policy changes in the Big Beautiful Bill; and conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.¹  Here are some highlights from the quarter:

• Tariff turmoil. In early April, President Trump announced tariffs on a much larger scale than anyone expected, startling investors and raising concerns about economic growth and price inflation, reported Sarah Hansen of Morningstar.² The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which is known as Wall Street’s fear gauge, shot up to 60.³ (Any reading above 30 signals a high level of fear, risk, and anticipated volatility.)⁴ As the VIX rose, the stock market fell.

“The Dow shed 2,000 points in a day for the fourth time in the index’s history. All told, U.S. stocks shed some $6.6 trillion in market cap in the past two days based on preliminary figures…That’s the largest two-day market cap slide for U.S. listed stocks on record,” reported Connor Smith of Barron’s.⁵

• A fast recovery. President Trump delayed immediate action on tariffs, opening the door to trade negotiations. His actions reassured investors, and U.S. stocks climbed to new highs. Through last week, “The S&P 500 is up 26 [percent] from the selloff low on April 8, while the Nasdaq has surged 34.9 [percent], as the worries, from supersized tariffs to the U.S.’s artificial-intelligence dominance, have slowly faded,” reported Teresa Rivas of Barron’s.⁶

International stocks performed even better than U.S. stocks did. “European stocks, a thoroughly unloved asset class in January, have trounced the S&P 500 by 16 percentage points in dollar terms, the biggest outperformance since 2006…After underperforming the US market every year since 2017, developing-country equities are finally winning, helped by a boom in [artificial intelligence] companies from Taiwan, South Korea and China,” reported Alice Gledhill, Malavika Kaur Makol and Sagarika Jaisinghani of Bloomberg.⁷

• Excellent earnings growth. During earnings season, companies let investors know how they performed in the previous quarter. Collectively, companies in the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index reported earnings growth of 12.9 percent for the first quarter of 2025. It was the second consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth, reported John Butters of FactSet. (Earnings are a measure of profitability.)⁸

Tariffs were the hot topic on earnings calls. They were mentioned by 427 S&P 500 companies.⁷ Some companies were concerned about tariffs. Some were not. The head of a financial firm told Sabrina Escobar of Barron’s, “The simple truth today is that we don’t yet know where trade policy will settle, nor do we know what the actual transmission effects will be on the real economy.”⁹

• The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) kept rates unchanged. Despite significant pressure from the administration to stimulate the economy by lowering rates, the Fed left the federal funds rate unchanged. At the end of the quarter, inflation was near the Fed’s two percent target and unemployment remained low. Both suggest the economy remains resilient.¹⁰

Major U.S. stock indexes continued to move higher last week, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finishing the week at record highs.¹¹ Yields onU.S. Treasuries moved higher last week after a stronger-than-expected employment report lowered expectations that the Fed might cut the federal funds rate in July, reported Sean Conlon, Alex Harring, and Sawdah Bhaimiya of CNBC.^12,13

Data as of 7/3/25	1-Week	YTD	1-Year	3-Year	5-Year	10-Year
Standard & Poor’s 500 Index	1.7%	6.8%	13.4%	17.9%	14.6%	11.7%
Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index	0.3	15.9	13.7	11.1	7.0	3.7
10-year Treasury Note (yield only)	4.4	N/A	4.4	2.8	0.7	2.3
Gold (per ounce)	1.8	27.6	41.1	22.6	13.5	11.1
Bloomberg Commodity Index	0.5	4.7	1.2	-2.6	9.3	0.4

S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods. 

Sources: Yahoo! Finance; MarketWatch; djindexes.com; U.S. Treasury; London Bullion Market Association.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.

PATRIOTIC FEELINGS. Last week, Americans celebrated the Fourth of July. Independence Day has been a national holiday since 1941, but the tradition began long before that. Americans have been celebrating Independence Day since “the 18th century and the American Revolution. On July 2nd, 1776, the Continental Congress voted in favor of independence, and two days later delegates from the 13 colonies adopted the Declaration of Independence, a historic document drafted by Thomas Jefferson. From 1776 to the present day, July 4th has been celebrated as the birth of American independence, with festivities ranging from fireworks, parades and concerts to more casual family gatherings and barbecues,” according to History.com.¹⁴

A recent survey asked Americans about the Fourth of July, patriotism and the American Dream. Here’s what they said:¹⁵

WEEKLY FOCUS – THINK ABOUT IT

“This is your democracy. Make it. Protect it. Pass it on.”¹⁶

― Thurgood Marshall, Former Supreme Court Justice

* These views are those of Carson Coaching, not the presenting Representative, the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, or Registered Investment Advisor, and should not be construed as investment advice.

* This newsletter was prepared by Carson Coaching. Carson Coaching is not affiliated with the named firm or broker/dealer.

* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.  However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.

* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.

* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.

* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.

* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.

* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.

* Gold represents the 3:00 p.m. (London time) gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association and is expressed in U.S. Dollars per fine troy ounce. The source for gold data is Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GOLDPMGBD228NLBM.

* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.

* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.

* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.

* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.

* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.

* The risk of loss in trading commodities and futures can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The high degree of leverage is often obtainable in commodity trading and can work against you as well as for you. The use of leverage can lead to large losses as well as gains.

* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.

* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.

* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.

* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.

* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.

* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. * Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.

Sources:

1 https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-fed-rate-cuts-d0252a07?mod=Searchresults or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/07-07-25-Barrons-Stocks-Are-Flying-the-Dollar-is-Falling%20-%201.pdf

2 https://www.morningstar.com/markets/13-charts-q2s-major-market-rebound

3 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cboe-volatility-index-vix-measured-153231819.html

4 https://www.cboe.com/tradable_products/vix/ [Video 1:15]

5 https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-040425 or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/07-07-25-Barrons-Nasdaq-Enters-Bear-Market%20-%205.pdf

6 https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-hits-record-highs-tax-bill-jobs-6f818d48? or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/07-07-25-Barrons-Stocks-Hit-Record-Hights%20-%206.pdf

7 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-06-30/rollercoaster-first-half-is-ending-with-stocks-at-records or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/07-07-25-Bloomberg-Rollercoaster-First-Half-Is-Ending%20-%207.pdf

8 https://insight.factset.com/earnings-insight-infographic-q1-2025-by-the-numbers

9 https://www.barrons.com/articles/tariffs-earnings-calls-stock-ccab0e3b or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/07-07-25-Barrons-CEOs-Are-Saying-These-2-Ominous%20-%209.pdf

10 https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20250618a.htm

11 https://www.barrons.com/market-data?mod=BOL_TOPNAV or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/07-07-25-Barrons-DJIA-S&P-Nasdaq%20-%2011.pdf

12 https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025

13 https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/03/us-treasury-yields-investors-await-junes-big-jobs-report-.html

14 https://www.history.com/articles/july-4th

15 https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/July_Fourth_poll_results.pdf 16https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2024/06/19/patriotic-quotes-america-usa/74070993007/#

The Markets

Major U.S. stock indexes raced to new highs last week.

In a remarkable recovery from April’s double-digit downturn, the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index raced to a new record high last week, and so did the Nasdaq Composite Index (Nasdaq). Key drivers behind the ascent included:

Investor optimism. Last week, the “Bull and Bear” investor sentiment indicator rose to its highest level since last November, reported Martin Baccardax of Barron’s. Easing of tensions in the Middle East lifted investor optimism. As the region settled, oil prices moved lower, quelling concerns that rising oil prices would push inflation higher.¹

Consumer sentiment. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index improved 16 percent in June, although it remained 18 percent below December’s reading. Expectations for personal finances and business conditions improved. However, “consumer views are still broadly consistent with an economic slowdown and an increase in inflation to come,” reported Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu. ²

Muted inflation. It was widely expected that higher tariffs would mean higher inflation. So far, that hasn’t been the case. In May, U.S. government revenue from tariffs surged to a record high, reported Jarrell Dillard of Bloomberg,³ and consumer prices remained relatively steady. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index showed core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 2.7 percent year over year.⁴ That was slightly above expectations, reported Nicole Goodkind of Barron’s.⁵

Trade optimism. While concerns remain about the impact of tariffs on inflation, investors gained confidence that the outlook for trade is improving. “Trump administration officials have recently softened the focus on the self-imposed July 9 deadline for deals. On Friday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent [said] he hoped to have trade wrapped up by Labor Day and described the latest pact with China as de-escalatory,” reported Reshma Kapadia and Elsa Ohlen of Barron’s.⁶

While current market momentum is impressive, “Some market watchers are cautioning that valuations are looking lofty, and that the S&P 500 would need an earnings boom or drastic Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts to justify current levels,” reported Natalia Kniazhevich of Bloomberg.⁷

U.S. stocks faltered on Friday after an announcement that trade negotiations with Canada would not take place, reported Karishma Vanjani of Barron’s. However, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq still finished the week at record highs.8 Yields onlonger maturities of U.S. Treasuries moved lower over the week.⁹

Data as of 6/27/25	1-Week	YTD	1-Year	3-Year	5-Year	10-Year
Standard & Poor’s 500 Index	3.4%	5.0%	12.6%	16.5%	15.1%	11.6%
Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index	3.0	15.5	14.9	10.0	7.4	3.6
10-year Treasury Note (yield only)	4.3	N/A	4.3	3.2	0.6	2.3
Gold (per ounce)	-2.9	25.3	40.8	21.5	13.1	10.8
Bloomberg Commodity Index	-3.6	4.2	1.5	-5.5	9.9	0.2

HOW AFFORDABLE ARE HOMES IN THE UNITED STATES? In the United States, homes are less affordable than they’ve been in a while. The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s Home Ownership Affordability Monitor tracks whether households earning a median income can afford a median-priced home. The Fed calculates that a home is affordable when the annual cost of owning it is less than 30 percent of a household’s annual income.¹⁰

In April 2025 (the most recent data available), a median-priced home was out of reach for a median-income household. ¹⁰

By the Fed’s calculations, a median-income household would need to spend 46 percent of its annual pay to own a median-priced home. To afford the home, the household would need annual income of about $123,000, an increase of about 55 percent.¹⁰ Here are the Fed numbers from April:

Median income (Median means one half of households earn more, and one half earn less):	$79,409
Median home price (One half of homes are priced higher, and one half are priced lower):	$392,500
Rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage:	6.7 percent
Median monthly payment (includes principal, interest, taxes, homeowners’ insurance, and private mortgage insurance):	$3,069
Percent of pay needed to meet annual cost of homeownership:	46 percent

Homeowners’ insurance is becoming more expensive

In some regions of the U.S., homeowners’ insurance is becoming more costly – and harder to acquire. “Homeowners in communities affected by substantial weather events are paying far more than those elsewhere. From 2018 to 2022, consumers living in the 20 percent of zip codes with the highest expected annual losses to buildings from climate-related perils paid…82 percent more than those in the 20 percent lowest climate-risk zip codes,” reported the U.S. Department of the Treasury.¹¹

How are younger people buying homes?

Younger Americans are employing a variety of strategies to make a home purchase possible.  According to a survey by a leading home sale site, aspiring Gen Z and Millennial homebuyers are:

• Working two jobs (39%),
• Receiving cash gifts from family (36%),
• Taking money from retirement plans early (22%),
• Spending an inheritance (16%), or
• Living with parents/family members to save money (13%).¹²

If you’re interested in helping a loved one with a home purchase, please get in touch. We can help discuss the options.

WEEKLY FOCUS – THINK ABOUT IT

“Listen to the mustn’ts, child. Listen to the don’ts. Listen to the shouldn’ts, the impossibles, the won’ts. Listen to the never haves, then listen close to me…Anything can happen, child. Anything can be.”¹³

― Shel Silverstein, Author

* These views are those of Carson Coaching, not the presenting Representative, the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, or Registered Investment Advisor, and should not be construed as investment advice.

* This newsletter was prepared by Carson Coaching. Carson Coaching is not affiliated with the named firm or broker/dealer.

* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.  However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.

* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.

* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.

* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.

* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.

* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.

* Gold represents the 3:00 p.m. (London time) gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association and is expressed in U.S. Dollars per fine troy ounce. The source for gold data is Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GOLDPMGBD228NLBM.

* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.

* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.

* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.

* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.

* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.

* The risk of loss in trading commodities and futures can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The high degree of leverage is often obtainable in commodity trading and can work against you as well as for you. The use of leverage can lead to large losses as well as gains.

* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.

* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.

* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.

* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.

* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.

* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.

* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.

Sources:

1 https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-rally-earnings-jobs-manufacturing-c98862f5 or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/06-30-25-Barrons-Stocks-Have-Powered-Past%20-%201.pdf

2 https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu

3 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-11/us-tariff-revenue-hits-fresh-record-helping-shrink-may-deficit or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/06-30-25-Bloomerg-Us-Tariff-Revenue-Hits-Fresh%20-%203.pdf

4 https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2025-06/pi0525.pdf [Table 7]

5 https://www.barrons.com/articles/inflation-pce-fed-rates-95c66d65 or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/06-30-25-Barrons-Inflation-Spending-Data-Leave%20-%205.pdf

6 https://www.barrons.com/articles/us-china-trade-deal-trump-lutnick-tariffs-0cab501a or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/06-30-25-Barrons-Trump-Ends-Talks-with-Canada%20-%206.pdf

7 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-27/s-p-500-rally-faces-key-test-as-profit-engine-is-seen-sputtering or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/06-30-25-Bloomberg-S&P-500-Rally-Faces-Key-Test%20-%207.pdf

8 https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-today-062725?mod=hp_LEDE_C_1

9 https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_month=202505

10 https://www.atlantafed.org/research/data-and-tools/home-ownership-affordability-monitor [Affordability chart and Affordability Gap chart tabs] or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/06-30-25-Federal-Reserve-Bank-Atlanta-Home-Affordabilty%20-%2010.pdf

11 https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2791

12 https://www.redfin.com/news/gen-z-millennial-down-payment-family-help/

13  https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/tag/anything-can-be