Weekly Market Commentary | Phillips Wealth Planners

The Markets

It’s beginning to look a lot like a rate cut…

A lot of information about the economy arrived last week. Some was delayed by the government shutdown. Some was right on time. Investors took a look and decided their holiday wish could come true. The Federal Reserve (Fed) might deliver a cut rate cut this week.¹ Here’s a brief recap of the information that landed just in time for the Fed to consider it.

Inflation rose in line with expectations.² From August to September, headline inflation increased from 2.7 percent to 2.8 percent year over year, while core inflation (which excludes volatile food and energy prices) fell from 2.9 percent to 2.8 percent, according to the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index.3 It’s one of the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation measures.

September spending mirrored rising prices. “U.S. consumers continue to be cautious with their wallets, spending more on basic goods and less on fun extras…gains in spending were largely concentrated on household necessities like gas and energy, housing and utilities, and healthcare…Spending on discretionary items like recreation services and goods actually decreased from the previous month…,” reported Nicole Goodkind of Barron’s.²

The holiday shopping season got off to a strong start. Fast forward from September to November, and Americans were less cautious with their wallets over the Thanksgiving holiday shopping week. A software company that tracks consumer spending online reported that Americans spent $79.6 billion that week – a 5 percent increase year over year.⁴ “More than half of consumers shopped exclusively or mostly online during the five-day period…,” reported a research company cited by Spencer Soper of Bloomberg.⁵

Consumer sentiment crept higher. Although the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index remained near all-time lows, sentiment improved from November to December.⁶

University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers	Dec 2024	Nov 2025	Dec 2025	Historic monthly average7
Index of Consumer Sentiment	74.0	51.0	53.3	84.8
Index of Current Economic Conditions	75.1	51.1	50.7	–
Index of Consumer Expectations	73.3	51.0	55.0	–

Major U.S. stock indexes closed higher last week with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index just below an all-time high, reported Connor Smith of Barron’s.^8,9 Yields on U.S. Treasuries notes and bonds rose over the week.¹⁰

Data as of 12/5/25	1-Week	YTD	1-Year	3-Year	5-Year	10-Year
Standard & Poor’s 500 Index	0.3%	16.8%	13.1%	19.8%	13.2%	12.7%
Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index	1.0	25.8	21.2	12.7	5.2	5.4
10-year Treasury Note (yield only)	4.1	N/A	4.2	3.6	0.9	2.2
S&P GSCI Gold Index	-0.3	60.7	60.2	33.6	17.9	14.7
Bloomberg Commodity Index	1.5	13.4	15.0	0.3	8.7	3.5

S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, S&P GSCI Gold Index, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends. The three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.

Sources: Yahoo! Finance; MarketWatch; djindexes.com; U.S. Treasury.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.

LANGUAGE IS CHANGING. There are a lot of languages in the world (7,159), butalmost half the world’s population (3.7 billion people) communicates using just 20 of them. Individual languages change over time. “They’re living and dynamic, used by communities whose lives are shaped by our rapidly changing world,” reported Ethnologue, a research center for language.¹¹

Dictionaries catalogue the ways language changes, adding new words that reflect the world around us. Several English dictionaries recently announced their Words of the Year (WOTY) for 2025. They include:

Parasocial, which is the Cambridge Dictionary’s WOTY. Parasocial is defined as “involving or relating to a connection that someone feels between themselves and a famous person they do not know, a character in a book, film, TV series, etc., or an artificial intelligence.” Searches for the term increased significantly “following the release of personalized AI chatbots by multiple companies in the preceding year, public discussion about the psychological impact of parasocial relationships expanded from being mainly about influencers and celebrities to including the benefits and dangers of chatbots.”¹²

Rage bait, which is the Oxford Dictionary’s WOTY. It was selected after three days of voting during which 30,000 people offered their insights and opinions. Use of the word increased three-fold in 2025. Rage bait is defined as: Online content deliberately designed to elicit anger or outrage by being frustrating, provocative, or offensive, typically posted in order to increase traffic to or engagement with a particular web page or social media account.¹³

AI slop, which is the Macquarie Dictionary’s WOTY. It is defined as “low-quality content created by generative AI, often containing errors, and not requested by the user.” It was chosen by staff editors, who wrote, “While in recent years we’ve learnt to become search engineers to find meaningful information, we now need to become prompt engineers in order to wade through the AI slop.”¹⁴

67 (pronounced six-seven), which is Dictionary.com’s WOTY. The word “is a viral, ambiguous slang term that has waffled its way through Gen Alpha social media and school hallways. While the term is largely nonsensical, some argue it means ‘so-so,’ or ‘maybe this, maybe that,’ especially when paired with a hand gesture where both palms face up and move alternately up and down…Because of its murky and shifting usage, it’s an example of brainrot slang and is intended to be nonsensical and playfully absurd.”¹⁵

It will be interesting to see how language in Australia changes over the next few years. Effective December 10, 2025, the nation implemented a law that requires people to be 16 or older to have social media accounts.¹⁶ As you can tell from some of the words above, online communications can have a transformative effect on language.

“Social media enables new words, phrases, and expressions to go viral in a matter of hours, sometimes reaching global audiences…language, once shaped primarily by formal institutions, now responds to grassroots innovation and mass participation, especially among youth cultures and online communities.”¹⁷

WEEKLY FOCUS – THINK ABOUT IT

“Sharing meals has a strong impact on subjective wellbeing – on par with the influence of income and unemployment. Those who share more meals with others report significantly higher levels of life satisfaction and positive affect, and lower levels of negative affect. This is true across ages, genders, countries, cultures, and regions.”¹⁸

– The World Happiness Report 2025

* These views are those of Carson Coaching, not the presenting Representative, the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, or Registered Investment Advisor, and should not be construed as investment advice.

* This newsletter was prepared by Carson Coaching. Carson Coaching is not affiliated with the named firm or broker/dealer.

* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.

* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.

* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.

* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.

* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.

* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.

* Gold represents the 3:00 p.m. (London time) gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association and is expressed in U.S. Dollars per fine troy ounce. The source for gold data is Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GOLDPMGBD228NLBM.

* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.

* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.

* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.

* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.

* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.

* The risk of loss in trading commodities and futures can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The high degree of leverage is often obtainable in commodity trading and can work against you as well as for you. The use of leverage can lead to large losses as well as gains.

* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.

* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.

* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.

* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.

* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.

* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.

* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.

Sources:

1 https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/12-8-25-CME-Group%20-%201.pdf

2 https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/pce-inflation-report-fed-rate-cuts?mod=hp_LEDE_C_2 or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/12-8-25-Barrons-Americans-Are-Spending-More%20-%202.pdf

3 https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2025-12/pi0925.pdf

4 https://www.salesforce.com/retail/peak-holiday/ [Sales Performance, United States] or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/12-8-25-Salesfoce-Shopping-Insights-HQ%20-%204.pdf

5 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-02/cyber-monday-online-spending-in-us-increases-7-1 or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/12-8-25-Bloomberg-Cyber-Monday-Spending%20-%205.pdf

6 https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu

7 https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/tables.html (See pdf) or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/12-8-25-Index-of-Consumer-Sentiment%20-%207.pdf

8 https://www.barrons.com/market-data?mod=BOL_TOPNAV or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/12-8-25-Barrons-DJIA-S&P-Nasdaq%20-%208.pdf

9 https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-today-120525/card/s-p-500-ends-week-within-striking-distance-of-record-ahead-of-next-week-s-fed-decision-9rOzAF0rGG8WmOxk2bCy or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/12-8-25-Barrons-S&P-Ends-Week-Within%20-%209.pdf